Fantasy Baseball 2017: 3 Takeaways from Opening Day
By Bill Pivetz
With Opening Day in the books, there is a lot to take away from the first three games of the season and how it affects fantasy baseball.
It’s finally here. Opening Day has come and gone and what a day it was. We had three games featuring the new-look New York Yankees, the defending World Series champions Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants. There was a lot of good and some bad. The important thing is to not overreact and breathe. Here are the fantasy baseball takeaways from Opening Day.
Regardless of what happened on the first day, week or even month, I do not recommend trading or dropping any struggling player. Unless they are a complete flyer and someone else better is available, stay with your current roster. Pitchers will lower their ratio stats and hitters will begin making contact with the ball. If an opposing owner is willing to move on from a player this soon, jump on that opportunity.
It’s only the first week. Relax.
Spring Training numbers don’t matter
As we were preparing for fantasy drafts, we were noting how players were performing in the spring. We kept tabs on how a batter was making contact with a ball, a pitcher’s speed and where the ball was landing, and if the prospects were adjusting to the MLB way of play.
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The reason I bring this up is because of what happened on Sunday. The Yankees had the best record in the spring. Their offense was hitting multiple home runs and scoring a lot of runs and the starting pitchers were shutting down opponents.
That did not translate to the regular season. The team only scored three runs. No. 2 catcher Gary Sanchez went 0-for-5 and Masahiro Tanaka lasted just 2.2 innings after allowing seven runs on eight hits and two walks.
On the flip side, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer dominated in his first start of the season. We know how badly he performed last year. I said last season was a fluke and he would bounce back greatly and he did. Archer struck out five, walked one and allowed two runs over seven innings.
Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo went a combined 1-for-8 in the first game. They will come around and be the top-20 picks you drafted them to be.
The Giants bullpen continues to struggle
This topic goes back to last season. I mentioned the stat before, but it’s worth bringing up again. Out of 73 opportunities, tied for third most, they blew a league-leading 30 saves, a conversion rate of just 58.9 percent, 25th in the league. But, with the addition of Mark Melancon, that couldn’t continue, could it?
Yes, it can. Derek Law blew the first opportunity. He allowed three hits and a run before being pulled from the game. The Giants recaptured the lead but Melancon gave up two runs on four hits in 0.2 innings. He was charged with a blown save and a loss.
I’m not sure if Will Smith would have changed things but he might have been used over Law. No one expected Melancon to perform the way he did. However, this is a sign that as much as the player’s change, the results stay the same.
Team managers do not care about fantasy baseball
During the spring, we talked about the many injuries that happened during the spring. However, there were a couple of injuries that were announced the day before or on Opening Day after 99 percent of fantasy leagues drafted.
I published Adrian Beltre‘s injury at 8:30 AM on Sunday. Toronto placed their closer Roberto Osuna on the 10-day DL on Sunday as well. He was dealing with neck stiffness back on March 22. If this was as serious as it is, an announcement before April 2 would have been nice. Fantasy owners drafted Osuna as a top-6 closer with a 90.8 ADP. Now, he’s on the DL for at least two weeks.
We don’t how if the Osuna, Beltre or any other injury will linger on throughout the season. If they do, then it affects their performance and could be a 2017 bust candidate. If not, then it’s just a minor hiccup in a long season. We just want clearer communication from managers but I don’t think it will happen.
Next: Adrian Beltre Begins Season on DL
As I said in the beginning, it’s been one-plus day. There’s no need to be reactionary. Players will regress to the mean, good or bad. Somethings are just more consistent than others.
Enjoy the season and good luck.