Fantasy Baseball 2017: Cleveland Indians Second Base Dilemma

The Indians’ second baseman, Jason Kipnis, has a shoulder issue that will keep him out of action for 4-5 weeks, so who will replace him within the labyrinth of options available to the Indians?

Kipnis has teetered on the brink of elite fantasy baseball production. He stole at least 30 bases for two straight seasons in 2012 and 2013 and batted over .300 in 2015. Kipnis hit 84 doubles over the last two seasons combined, and last year, he launched a career-high 23 home runs for the Indians.

He is a reliable producer, well worth a pick as one of the top-10 second basemen, with the potential to be truly elite if he ever puts it all together.

Kipnis has inflammation in his right shoulder, which unfortunately is also his throwing shoulder and has been shut down with the goal of resuming hitting and throwing in about a week.

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Currently the 29-year-old is expected to miss at least the first two weeks of the season, but shoulder issues have a tendency to linger. Last season, his teammate Michael Brantley was frequently reported to be only a week or two away from a full recovery and returning to action, but he only played 11 games all season.

It could be argued that the Indians rushed Brantley back, in hopes of realizing the potential of a team whose window of competitiveness is now. The same could happen with Kipnis. The Indians invested heavily in the offseason to secure the services of Edwin Encarnacion, and the veteran core of the team (Brantley, Kipnis, Cody Allen, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco) will only be affordable for another year or two.

Prior to the start of Spring Training, the Indians’ infield was set. Carlos Santana and Encarnacion manning first base and DH, Kipnis second, superstar Francisco Lindor at shortstop and Jose Ramirez at the hot corner. Kipnis’ injury could disrupt more than second base.

OPTION 1: Michael Martinez

The easy option will be for the Indians to slot utility infielder/outfielder Michael Martinez straight into second base until Kipnis returns. The 34-year-old offers nothing to make fantasy baseball players excited. He has no power (six home runs in 534 at-bats), and he does not get on base (career .241 OBP). He has attempted three stolen bases in three years and was caught every time. His profile is that of a bench player who can play anywhere. That doesn’t help anyone in fantasy.

Despite the obvious offensive disadvantage of playing Martinez, if the Indians are seriously considering this option they must truly believe that Kipnis will only miss a week or two. Martinez is a non-roster invitee, so would need to be moved onto the 40-man roster but there would be no impact on the other positions.

Martinez is aiding his case with a surprisingly good spring, hitting .357 (15-for-42) with one home run, four doubles and no strikeouts.

OPTION 2: Erik Gonzalez

Another relatively easy option is to make Erik Gonzalez the everyday second baseman until Jason Kipnis returns.

The Indians’ number eight prospect slashed .296/.329/.450 with 11 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 104 games in the minors. He can handle every position in the infield or outfield, so would be an ideal utility player off the bench. Even before Kipnis’ injury, Cleveland was undecided whether to keep Gonzalez in the minors to get regular playing time or have him available from the big league bench.

Gonzalez has probably shown too much swing and miss in Spring Training to persuade the Indians that he should replace Kipnis. The 25-year-old is hitting .279 (12-for-43) with one home run but 15 strikeouts to one walk.

All of the other possibilities will have much greater impact in the fantasy baseball world, and they all involve moving Jose Ramirez from third base to second.

OPTION 3: Jose Ramirez

Ramirez was sensational in his breakout season last year, going from an undrafted infielder without a job to a top-10 third baseman and top-25 outfielder, regardless of the format of fantasy baseball. A move from third to second base would be a huge bonus for Ramirez’s value. Second base is shallower than third this season, with far fewer truly elite players at the top end.

Ramirez entered the 2016 season as a multi-position bench player, having hit .219 in 2015 but with sleeper potential for double-digit stolen bases. With Brantley missing time with his shoulder injury, Ramirez played in left field and quickly earned a reputation for putting the bat on the ball, especially in critical situations.

He hit .355 with men in scoring positions, helped by being one of the best contact hitters in the game. If he swings, he usually makes contact. His 88.8% contact rate is in the top-10. And when he is tempted to swing at balls outside of the strike zone, he is the best in the league with 84.4% contact rate. Ramirez is a selective hitter, so he is more than happy to take a walk if he doesn’t get the pitch he wants.

Jose Ramirez hit double-digit home runs with 22 stolen bases and .312 AVG. There was nothing not to like about his production and nothing in his game that looks unrepeatable in 2017. Understandably, Indians’ manager Terry Francona is reluctant to disrupt the equilibrium and move Ramirez from third base.

"The team’s preference is still to keep Jose Ramirez at third base and think about the second base situation."

OPTION 3a: Giovanny Urshela

Urshela was the everyday third baseman for the Columbus Clippers in Triple-A last season, playing 117 games with a .274/.294/.380 slash line. He improved as the season progressed, hitting .330 with .830 OPS from August 1. The 25-year-old went 2-for-14 for Colombia in the World Baseball Classic and is hitting just .240 in the Cactus League.

This is another easy option for the Indians to take, with Urshela already on the 40-man roster and having proved himself as an adequate defensive third baseman in the majors. It is fair to expect an improvement on the .608 OPS in 81 games in his Major League debut stint in 2015, but it is difficult to picture Urshela offering much fantasy value except in the very deepest of leagues.

OPTION 3b: Richie Shaffer

In 2015, Richie Shaffer destroyed Minor League pitching with 26 home runs and .897 OPS. The former first-rounder looked on the verge of a big season with the Rays in 2016 but slumped to .227 batting average with Triple-A Durham, and failed in his big league promotion in August.

It was a whirlwind of an offseason for Shaffer, moving as a waiver claim from the Rays to the Indians via the Mariners, Phillies and Reds, in the space of ten weeks. Even the Indians exposed him to waivers, but he cleared and was outrighted to Triple-A.

Shaffer has played first, third and left field in Spring Training, and could easily handle everyday at-bats at the hot corner for the Indians. The offseason carousel will have focused the 26-year-old’s outlook that the next opportunity needs to be grasped, otherwise there may be no others.

Shaffer will immediately become an intriguing pick up if the Indians decide to add him to their 40-man roster with the intention of playing him at third base. He could be this season’s Adam Duvall, who graduated from long-term prospect to big league regular for the Reds last year, hitting 33 home runs with103 RBI.

OPTION 3c: Yandy Diaz

This is the favorite option of the Indians’ fan base, although Francona has tempered expectations.

"He wasn’t the finished product as a third baseman and then last year, we moved him to right field, because there was a need and he was still rough around the edges.Now, because there’s a potential opening at third, he would kind of go back to that. It’s not perfect. It’s trying to weigh having his bat, but also the development of his defense. I’m not even sure if it’s a possibility, but we’d like to give him a chance, because he’s such a good hitter."

Diaz, the Indians’ number ten prospect, is one of the best and most disciplined hitters in the Indians’ system, who Francona has repeatedly referred to as an “advanced hitter”.

The 25-year-old Cuban hit .318 with .854 OPS in the minors last season, with nine home runs, 22 doubles and 11 stolen bases. He has a patient approach, similar to Brantley and Ramirez, with 198 walks to 191 strikeouts in his Minor League career.

In 12 Cactus League games, Diaz has slashed .417/.548/.625 with unsurprisingly, more walks than strikeouts. He has a career .409 OBP which would look very appealing in a lineup featuring the power bats of Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion.

The Indians’ decision is one of the more intriguing storylines of Spring Training. If either Diaz or Shaffer gets the job, they could be valuable fantasy contributors that you can get off waivers or with the last pick of your draft. Shaffer has the power to hit 20-30 home runs and Diaz looks capable of contributing in all five standard scoring categories.

Despite being the overwhelming favorites to take the AL Central, the Indians will not want to risk a slow start to the season, so this is a big decision.

Next: Fantasy impact of Didi Gregorius' injury

My head tells me that Giovanny Urshela’s 40-man status will work to his advantage to secure the third base job on Opening Day, with Erik Gonzalez, Yandy Diaz and Richie Shaffer starting the year in the minors, and Michael Martinez’s versatility clinching a bench spot.

My heart wants the Indians to be bold and promote Shaffer to be the everyday third baseman with Gonzalez on the bench, and Diaz and Urshela back in Triple-A awaiting the next call. As for Martinez, maybe his time with the Indians has run its course.

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