Mike Napoli: How Impending Free Agency Effect Fantasy Value?

By Brad Kelly | Nov 30, 2016

Oct 30, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Cleveland Indians first baseman Mike Napoli (left) hits a single in front of Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras (right) during the seventh inning in game five of the 2016 World Series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /

Mike Napoli had a huge resurgence for the Indians last season, serving as a key cog of the Tribe’s deep October run. But, how will his impending free agency, effect his fantasy value?

Somethings come better late, than never, and it all it took was 10 years for Mike Napoli to finally post the 30+ HR/100+ RBI season that we have all been waiting for. He is undoubtedly one of the best raw power hitters in the game, but fantasy owners could not have guessed that going to the Indians would be all he needed to break out. But, does his impending free agency effect his fantasy value?

The answer to that is two fold. On one hand, his possible landing spot will go a long way in helping fantasy owners determine his fantasy value, but there is also the fact that fantasy owners will have to believe in his breakout in the first place. There in lies, the rub.

Sine his debut in 2006, Napoli has mashed at least 18 HR per season. Prior to 2016, his career high in HR was 30 in 2011, and his career high in RBI was 92 in 2013. Last season he eclipsed both marks while posting a, .239/34 HR/101 RBI/92 R/.800 OPS. It was easily his best run production season of his career.

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Clearly fantasy owners are going to want Napoli for his power. Interestingly enough, it seems as though the front runners to sign him are all teams he once played for. Besides the Indians, the Red Sox, and Rangers are making the hardest push to sign him. Landing at either of these spots would be great for his fantasy value, as each ballpark is hitter friendly and both teams sport solid supporting casts.

Therefore, his fantasy value will seemingly be unaffected by his landing spot based on the favorites to land him. But, there are some concerns when it comes to him repeating his success. Napoli strikes out a ton, 194 K in 2016, and a 30% K rate can serve to be problematic.

Looking at his batted ball data, there were not too many glaring changes compared to 2015. Which may have some owners wondering if the 30+ HR are here to stay. Nine years is ample sample size to compare his 2016 numbers to his career norms.

Last season he posted a, 19% LD, 36% GB, 45% FB, 44% Med Contact, and 37% Hard contact rate.

His career norms read as followed, 18.8% LD, 38% GB, 45% FB, 49% Med, and 35% Hard contact rate.

There is not an obvious change in his batted ball that leads owners to the source of his breakout, so the questions continue to loom. The only reasoning behind his sudden power uptick, is that his 37% Hard contact rate was a career high, and he did that while pulling nearly 48% of his batted balls, a 4% jump from his career norm.

He simply hit the ball harder, and pulled it more, leading owners to see why 30+ HR came about. The dilemma is, can that now be a fixture of his game, or do the prior nine years tell us that some sort of regression is coming? The safest bet is to expect something in between the two.

Mike Napoli shapes up as a great CI or UTIL option. First base is still stacked, so Napoli kind of gets lost in the shuffle. The AVG is never going to be there, especially now that his contact rate has slipped to 72%. But, he is still strong as hell. His average HR distance was 410 ft., a ridiculous mark over the course of 34 HR.

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His counting stats will remain solid next season no matter where he lands, yet owners need to expect some regression. Something around a, .240/25 HR/80 RBI line, is what owners should project. A solid line from a potential draft day bargain, so keep track of him this offseason, and heading into the spring.

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