Fansided

Drafting the Perfect Fantasy Baseball Team in 2016

By Joseph Ganann

Sep 24, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) singles during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 24, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) singles during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Last year, I wrote an article the constructed the perfect fantasy baseball team based on Average Draft Position. Can it be done this year?

The idea was, in hindsight, to strategically have drafted the best possible fantasy baseball roster based on when players were available in each round. On that team, there were gems like Manny Machado taken in round 10, AJ Pollock in round 17, and Dallas Keuchel in round 19.  Well, the perfect draft is back and there are new names across the board.

GUIDELINES

I assume a mid-round pick, so I typically use the fifth pick as the starting point for the rest of the draft. This is also representative of the fantasy settings for ESPN which includes MI, CI, and 5 OF positions and a UTIL spot. As for the league format, this is a 10 team, standard mixed league. This is also a Roto league so it matters less how streaky a player was during the season or those who may have finished poorly.

Generally, some late round picks can’t be predicted and I typically use those for closers. So it’s not likely this team could ever truly be drafted. But it’s just fun to look at where some of the best players could have been drafted this season. I’m fully aware that ESPN may not be your favorite site or that the player rater has its weaknesses.

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And remember, this is all about finding the value in each round and within each position. So I cross-reference each round of players with their player rater finish.

For example, last year I could have chosen Josh Donaldson in the 3rd and Sonny Gray in the 7th but since David Price and Nolan Arenado in those same respective rounds netted a higher player rater value, I chose that combo instead.

Without further ado, the perfect draft using the ESPN Draft Results and the ESPN Player Rater.

THE DRAFT

RoundPlayerADPPlayer Rater
1Jose Altuve62
2Mookie Betts241
3Madison Bumgarner2310
4Charlie Blackmon3512
5Jose Fernandez53N/A*
6Noah Syndergaard6340
7Jon Lester739
8Freddie Freeman7436
9Zach Britton10017
10Jeurys Familia10243
11Christian Yelich10463
12Daniel Murphy11923
13Justin Verlander13111
14Masahiro Tanaka13852
15Ian Desmond14137
16Dustin Pedroia17256
17Mark Trumbo17160
18Kyle Hendricks19915
19Roberto Osuna20255
20Stephen Piscotty213110
21Wil Myers22635
22Jean Segura2446
23Jonathan Villar2605
24Wilson Ramos290133
25Rick Porcello29514

THE SQUAD

HITTERS

C: Wilson Ramos

1B: Freddie Freeman

2B: Jose Altuve

SS: Jean Segura

3B: Jonathan Villar

MI: Daniel Murphy

CI: Wil Myers

OF: Mookie Betts

OF: Charlie Blackmon

OF: Christian Yelich

OF: Ian Desmond

OF: Mark Trumbo

UTIL: Stephen Piscotty

BENCH: Dustin Pedroia

PITCHERS

SP: Madison Bumgarner

SP: Jose Fernandez

SP: Noah Syndergaard

SP: Jon Lester

SP: Justin Verlander

SP: Masahiro Tanaka

SP: Kyle Hendricks

RP: Zach Britton

RP: Jeurys Familia

RP: Roberto Osuna

BENCH: Rick Porcello

DRAFT NOTES

From ADP 100 until ADP 300, there were only four relief pitchers out of 33 ranked that held the closer role for the entire year: Familia, Osuna,

Francisco Rodriguez

, and

David Robertson

. While there were other relief pitchers ranked worth darfting and owning —

Andrew Miller

,

Dellin Betances

— this proves time and time again that you dont pay for saves.

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The name of the game last season was third basemen, with guys like Arenado and Machado finishing in the top 20 while being drafted outside of the top 60. This year, those third basemen produced, but almost none of the high-ranked third basemen matched their ADP. And that’s how you get Jonathan Villar holding down the position.

  • This team has spread. Out of the 14 players I drafted on offense, six players had dual position eligibility and that’s with ESPN’s stricter position eligibility in effect. The result is a team that rarely missed at-bats, being able to mix and match on any given day. Each position is three deep in terms of player with eligibility except third base (and catcher). However, I could have drafted Justin Turner in the same round I drafted Dustin Pedroia and covered that as well.

    • I know it’s said every year across some part of the spectrum but this was truly an awful, awful year for pitcher injuries and under-performance. Among the top 20 starters in ADP this season, only nine finished as a top 20 starter. I’ll be writing on what to expect from pitchers in 2017 later this week.

    Another topic I’ll be writing on this week: positional scarcity. When you’re able to snag two shortstops after pick 240 that finish top five among batters on the player rater, that’s fantastic. Combine that with third basemen under performing their draft position, and second base becoming one of the deepest positions in baseball, it’s time for us to reassess and devise new strategies next season.

  • There are some names I left out that I do think deserve a spot in some iteration of this draft. Guys like DJ LeMahieu, Jose Ramirez, and Eduardo Nunez deserve some love but I couldn’t fit everyone unfortunately. I still wanted a draft to be realistic so while I could have replaced Stephen Piscotty with Ramirez and Pedroia with Nunez, their ADP wouldn’t have warranted them being drafted in that round.

    • Next: Elvis Andrus: 2017 Regression Candidate?

    FEEDBACK

    Who did I miss? What value did I not see? Better yet, how many of these players did you draft or acquire this year? If you have been reading my work all year, I was fortunately able to hit on some of these guys in my Sleeper Series (Piscotty, Tanaka, Verlander, Segura, Pedroia, Myers). Let me know the comments.

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