Marlins Tom Koehler 2nd Half Ace: Waiver Wire Add

Amidst all the injuries the Marlins have had in their rotation this season, Tom Koehler has stepped up and carried the team during the second half.

The Miami Marlins are valiantly competing in the National League Wild Card race, even though the team has been ravaged by injuries. Giancarlo Stanton was the latest casualty, but injury has been the most troublesome in the rotation. Jose Fernandez is unquestionably the team’s ace, but Tom Koehler has emerged as the Marlins’ best pitcher over the second half. But, can fantasy owners believe in Koehler enough to make him a waiver wire add?

Koehler was a 18th round draft pick by the Marlins in 2008 out of Stony Brook University. Even though he was never touted as a top prospect, he has proven to be a serviceable starter in the majors since 2013. Over 112 major league starts, he owns a respectable 4.05 ERA and 6.7 SO/9.

While his ceiling is capped as he turns 30-years-old, Koehler has tweaked his pitching approach over the second half that may help extend his career. Koehler does not posses one overpowering pitch, but his funky delivery allows his mid-90s fastball and secondary stuff to play well off each other. But, during the first half, Koehler was prone to huge blowup due to hitters teeing off on his fastball.

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Koehler has been notorious for attacking the strike zone early and often, but while that approach has it perks, hitters also know whats coming. On the season, Koehler has a 3.82 ERA/1.38 WHIP/109 K/4.08 FIP line over 139 innings. While the WHIP is certainly high, it is a respectable line all in all.

However, the all around improvement that he has shown during the second half, is impressive. For one, he has lowered his ERA by nearly two runs since the All-Star break. Koehler’s K rate is still almost exactly the same, 7.0 during the first half and 7.1 during the second, showing that a change in approach has to be at the root of the turnaround.

By looking closer at his pitching splits, fantasy owners can see where the change has occurred. Koehler is simply throwing more breaking balls early in the count. His fastball usage has dropped nearly eight percent  since the first half, not only allowing him to feature his breaking stuff more, but also allowing him to get more batters to chase pitches out of the zone. Batters only chased his pitches out of the zone at a 26 percent clip in the first half, but that rate increased 10 percent.

Over his last six starts, Koehler has only allowed seven earned runs over 39 innings, while striking out 30. The most encouraging part of his latest starts though, is that he has only walked seven over that span, allowing him to manage his WHIP.  Even though he may lack the huge upside that owners yearn for off the waiver wire, Koehler’s emergence appears legitimate.

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Koehler’s next start will come against the Kansas City Royals on Aug. 25 in Miami. The Royals have had their fair share of offensive struggles this season, so there is no reason to believe that he can not keep hot streak going. He is still available in over 50% of leagues across all fantasy formats.