Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew McCutchen: 2nd Half Bounce Back?
By Brad Kelly
Andrew McCutchen has been a shell of himself over the first half of the season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. But, should fantasy owners believe in a second half bounce back?
It is nearly impossible to equate what Andrew McCutchen has meant to the Pittsburgh Pirates since he debuted in 2009. He is undoubtedly the heart of the team, and has cemented himself as one of the best OF in all of baseball. But, his production has taken a turn for the worse this season, leaving fantasy owners left wondering, can Cutch rebound?
McCutchen numbers on the season, .247/14 HR/38 RBI/2 SB/.745 OPS, are a far cry from what is expected from him, and serves as a big blow to those that selected within the early rounds of drafts in 2016. While there were some concerns about his production slipping after last season, it is hard to devalue a guy that is as steady as they come.
Since becoming a starter in 2010, Cutch has never played in less than 146 games. While his durability, and consistency have been the pillars of his success, they also play a substantial role in his struggles this season. In terms of believing in his rebound, it is important to first look at his monthly splits.
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Andrew McCutchen has alternated hot and cold months over the first half the season. In April he batted .226, then .284 in May, back down to .202 in June, and now .314 in early July. He got out of the gates slow, but dealt with nagging heel and knee ailments nearly the entire month. Once seemingly healed, it came as no surprise to see him begin to turn things around in May. However in June, he was once again hit by the injury bug, this time being a right hand injury.
As owners can see by the splits, there is an obvious pattern. Even though it is early in July, Cutch already has 11 Hits in only nine games, and has homered twice, which is only one less than in all of June. Even by simply using the eye test, he just looks more locked in at the plate. Health plays a huge part in any sport, so should we be shocked that Cutch is playing better now that it seems that he has gotten over some of his nagging injuries?
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While it would be easier to just chalk up Andrew McCutchen’s struggles to injuries, there are some credible sources of concern. Cutch has struggled with velocity all season, batting well below league average versus pitches over 95 mph. He has also seen his K% rise, and his BB% drop, which obviously has decimated his OBP this season. He did battle leg injuries early in the season, but it is disheartening to see with only 7 SB attempts, while only being successful twice, so the 20+ SB numbers could finally be gone for good.
Those are unfortunate reminders of his struggles, but those stats do hurt owners all the same. Other than Cutch’s health improving, with the added rest of not being named to the All-Star game this season, owners will truly see how good he still is. His LD% rate is 22%, and his Hard contact rate is 34%, both very respectable outputs even during a down first half, so there are signs of hope even in the peripherals.
Next: Second Half Bounce Back Candidates
There are enough positives going in Andrew McCutchen’s favor to warrant owners’ hope over the second half. He has the track record, and talent that can carry fantasy squads, so do not be surprised to see him leads towards the playoffs. For those who do not own McCutchen, try to snag him from another team, as it would be a perfect chance at buying low on the superstar.