Toronto Blue Jays Justin Smoak: Waiver Wire Add

By Brad Kelly | May 16, 2016

May 8, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak (14) throws his bat during MLB game action against the Los Angeles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports /

Justin Smoak has been on fire for the month of May. Now with a full time role, should fantasy owners make him a must add off the waiver wire?

Finding success in major league baseball often hinges on opportunity. The Toronto Blue Jays have had their hands full lately between hovering around .500 all year and their latest fisticuffs. One thing that they did not foresee, besides Odor’s right jab, was losing Chris Colabello to a PED suspension earlier this season.

Colabello had a great season in 2015, and it seemed as though he would get the lion share of playing time at first base this season. Leaving, Justin Smoak for the most part, in a platoon or part-time role. Fantasy owners are well familiar with Smoak since his days as being the next big thing with the Texas Rangers, but he has seemingly failed to live up to that hype over the course of his career.

While he will never reach the ceiling that was once predicted, he has been on fire lately and could be a prime power waiver wire add. For the month of May and especially after Colabello’s suspension, he has posted a, .421/3 HR/7 RBI/1.237 OPS line. Over that 14 game span, he has 16 hits including 3 doubles.

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Smoak still gets exposed versus lefties, and has found some luck BABIP wise, but the Jays will continue to throw him out at first base for the foreseeable future. During a turnaround like he has had from the month of April, where he hit only .189, fantasy owners should also want to see past the traditional stats and look for other sings of encouragement before picking him up.

The first thing that should catch fantasy owner’s attention is the marked improvement he has made with his plate approach. He currently has 16 BB and 28 K, keep in mind that Smoak’s highest walk total in any season was 64 in 2013, so to see his current walk rate on pace to demolish his career high is encouraging in itself.

There is also the mechanical adjustment at the plate that me made last September that allowed him to find more balance in his stance, which not only helped in his surge late last season, but may also be the root of success this season. Looking further at Smoak’s batted ball profile, his 38.3 Hard% contact rate and 34 Oppo% are both career high rates, not to mention the career low 25.5% GB rate he has is the lowest of his career as well.

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By closer examining his peripheral stats on top of the great fantasy output he has shown in May, it paints the picture of a player that has enough positives going for him that warrants a waiver wire add. Toronto still has a great hitter’s ballpark and lineup, so with Smoak normally being slotted in the fifth or sixth spot of the lineup, the counting stats should always be there.

Owners can now make the move.

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