R-E-L-A-X: Anthony Rendon Will Produce

Anthony Rendon has had an weak first month but the production will come at any moment as he still shows signs he is capable of 2014 numbers.

When you drafted Anthony Rendon, you expected to get probably an 80-90% version of the player that put up MVP numbers in 2014. Rendon’s monster season had him ranked as a 2nd to 3rd rounder so drafting him around the 80th-100th this season, fantasy players expected to get a great deal. However, Rendon simply hasn’t delivered this season and has been a frustrating player to own and roster each day waiting for the breakout. The question is whether or not we should cut ties or continue to believe and it’s my belief that it would be wise to hold Rendon, as the advanced numbers point to Rendon ready for a production outburst at any moment.

RENDON IS MIRRORING HIS 2014 SEASON

Praise hands, everyone. Despite Rendon putting together a 2016 season that has him at zero home runs through the first month and only one steal to match his one RBI, the advanced numbers are nearly identical to his 2014 season.

It really is shocking just how similar of a season that Anthony Rendon is having. Both the walk and strikeout metrics are fantastic, even showing an improvement with his K-rate.  This should result in a higher batting average and a better on-base percentage.

He is trading fly balls for line drives which should theoretically lead to better batting average as well. And speaking of that Batted Ball data, his contact rates are essentially identical. HIs Soft/Med/Hard % was 14.7%/47.5%/37.8% in 2014. In 2016, it’s 14.6%/47.6%/37.8%. The guy has not lost much bat speed and it shows that he still driving the ball really well.

More importantly, we don’t see Rendon compensation for an injury with his approach at the plate. He is still using all parts of the field, turning in 31.7% distribution to both center and opposite fields and these metrics are actually better in terms of distribution than 2014.

So in the early going this season, we see a guy who is essentially hitting the same way that he did two seasons ago. So just why has it been such a disappointing season when we look at the final numbers?

RENDON NEEDS A REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

Simply put, Anthony Rendon has had some very poor luck. Below you can see two metrics that are used to measure some luck that has been involved this season.

Visually, we can see above both the fly ball and line drive results from BaseballSavant. The distribution is very solid but Rendon simply hasn’t been able to get those balls to fall for hits or go over the fence. According to BaseballSavant and the StatCast data, Rendon has an average batted ball distance of 218 feet; that certainly isn’t amazing but it is a batted ball distance that matches Carlos Correa so it certainly isn’t a red flag. I think we can reasonably be assured that the home runs will come.

As for the stolen bases, I think Rendon was always due for a dip in that department. His knee injury last season was lingering and with two stolen base attempts so far in 2016, he is off his pace in 2014 where he attempted 20 stolen bases. But as Rendon’s batting average rises, so will his times on base, likely resulting in an increase his stolen base attempts. Personally, I’m confident he will reach double-digit stolen bases this season.

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RENDON NEEDS MORE OPPORTUNITIES

While the runs scored have been nice — 16 so far in 24 games, on a pace to score over 100 runs in 2016 — the lack of RBIs has really been a product of Rendon not getting many opportunities while also not doing much with the opportunities he has been afforded so far.

So far in 2016, I think Dusty Baker’s strategy of putting a center fielder with a .225 OBP batting first in the order of Rendon has paid off…if they goal was to limit the man’s opportunities. So far, Rendon ranks in the bottom 25 in the league in plate appearances with men on base. And he is only 4 plate appearances from being the lowest in the league. Thanks, Dusty. On a side note, sell high on Nick Markakis. His .515 batting average with men on base will plummet and so will the RBI production you got from him in April.

Back to Tony. In 2014, Rendon batted 2nd for much of the season putting him in a position to contribute with both runs and RBIs. This season, he again has been batting second but his production has dipped tremendously. Two seasons ago, he batted .295 with men on base, which allowed him to drive in 83 runs. However this year, Rendon has seen fewer opportunities on average and is batting just .138 with men on base.

Eventually, Ben Revere will return from injury and alleviate some of these concerns but we can’t change what a manager will do or how a hitter will hit. We surely can say that has Rendon raises his average, so will his batting average with men on base and Revere will give him more RBI opportunities. But if Taylor continues to get the nod, we will just have to deal with the repercussions (Taylor struck out four times before I finished that paragraph).

Next: Martin Prado: Deep Waiver Wire Add

 OVERALL SUMMARY

Anthony Rendon is down to 80% owned in ESPN leagues and I think now is the perfect buy low time on a player who has had a run of bad luck and looking to get his lead off man back in the coming weeks. I’m confident he will finish the season with a ranking that warranted his top 10 round draft slot. Keep the faith.