Toronto Blue Jays: 2016 Fantasy Preview

A.L. East

Toronto Blue Jays

Must Own Fantasy Player: Josh Donaldson

Potential Fantasy Bust: Marco Estrada

Prospect to Watch: Anthony Alford

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to defend their A.L. East crown in 2016, after using a torrid run in the second half of last season to gain control. Armed with the best offense in baseball, can the pitching hold on enough to make them an unstoppable force? What should fantasy owners expect form the club moving forward?

Everyone in baseball knows that the Jays’ calling card, is the heart of their lineup. Led by A.L. MVP, Josh Donaldson, the Jays will once again have a modern-day version of Murders’ Row. Predictably so, Donaldson took off after coming over from Oakland last offseason, and his 43 HR/123 RBI, were incredible. He could arguably go as high as fourth overall this spring in drafts, and even if he regresses slightly, he will be a first round value. Draft aggressively.

The rest of the Jays infield lacks the certainty that usual World Series hopefuls have. Troy Tulowitzki will once again be a highly analyzed fantasy player this season, and it remains to be seen just how high or low fantasy owners target him. He struggled with the move to Toronto, capped off by missing time to another freak injury. We know the upside and the risk that comes with him, so owners may be better off letting him to fall to them, instead of making him a draft day target.

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Toronto will look to defensive wiz, Ryan Goins, to man second base. Goins could develop into a nice MI pickup during the season if his stick continues to develop, but owners can pass up on him in drafts as he lacks big offensive upside.

At first base the Jays will enlist journeyman, Chris Colabello, again in 2016. He is coming off a career season, notching 15 HR and posting a .321 AVG. While his AVG will surely drop, thanks to an unreal .411 BABIP, the power production looks legit. He handled both righties and lefties well last season, so the Jays could look to him to get a lion share of the time over Justin Smoak. He shapes up to be a low upside, CI flier this spring.

What else can be said for a guy that has amassed, 151 HR, 423 RBI, and a .919 OPS the last four years? That is what, Edwin Encarnacion, has been able to produce and why he still belongs in the first round of drafts this season. Consistency is hard to find in baseball, and while owners cannot win their season in the first round, they can surely mess it up. Target E5 in the backend of the first round and enjoy the production.

The emergence of outfielder, Kevin Pillar, was a welcome surprise for the Jays and fantasy owners alike. He continually makes highlight reel catches, but he is not too shabby with the bat either, .278 AVG/12 HR/56 RBI/25 SB/.713 OPS. Combine the fact that none of his success looks to be a fluke, with him potentially leading off for the Jays, and what you have is a wildly undervalued OF next season. He has the upside to be an OF3, yet is getting drafted as an OF4 or even OF5. Take advantage of owners not valuing him high enough, and target him aggressively.

In right field, Jose Bautista, will look for another season full of bat flips as he enters a contract year. All offseason drama aside, JoeyBats is coming off back to back 35+ HR/100+ RBI seasons and has played in over 150 games across those seasons as well. He walked a league high 110 times last season, which makes any AVG limitations, a side note. Some owners have trepidations about taking him because of the injury scares, but he has proven to be the premium power bat in baseball the last six seasons, and that should not change.

Michael Saunders and Dalton Pompey, will likely platoon in leftfield, but each of them take away from each other’s value. Pompey can fly, but will need to hone his approach at the plate in order to get on base consistently. Saunders was a popular sleeper last season before injuring his knee, but he brings more pop to the table. It looks to be a pure platoon so both can be avoided on draft day, but if either gets the starting nod, they would be recommended late round fliers.

Even with all the fire power that the Jays have, they will not be able to contend without their starting pitching taking a big step forward. With David Price out of the picture, Marcus Stroman, will be anointed the team’s ace. He certainly looks the part, and has one of the most electric arms in MLB. He should be drafted as a SP2, with clear ace upside.

After Stroman though, things get rough. R.A. Dickey will surely give 200+ innings, but his K drop is not encouraging. He did post a 3.91 ERA last season, but with a deep pitching pool, owners will gravitate towards starters with higher upsides.

J.A. Happ somehow parlayed 10 solid second half starts into a sizable free agent deal, which seemed to ignore not only the terrible first half of the season he had, but also his mediocre career. While he may have figured something out with the Pirates, fantasy owners cannot buy into a guy that was plastered in the A.L. East only a few seasons ago. Let him prove his turnaround his legitimate first.

Marco Estrada will be tasked with becoming the co-ace behind Stroman, and he was surprisingly effective last season coming over from the Brewers. He posted a, 3.13 ERA and 131 K, so he certainly found success but there are some warning signs. His current nagging injury aside, he did surrender 24 HR, had a 4.40 FIP, and a historically low .217 BABIP against him in 2015. Point being, it is hard to bet on Estrada maintaining the type of SP3 or SP4 level of production that he had last season.

The last spot in the rotation will be a competition between, Aaron Sanchez, Jesse Chavez, Drew Hutchison, and Gavin Floyd. Out of all the options listed, Sanchez warrants the most fantasy attention. He has a huge arm, but has not been able put it all together just yet. If he can secure the job, he is a great late round SP5 flier, because of the K upside. It is a rotation battle to pay attention too.

With Sanchez more than likely becoming a full-time starter again, the Jays knew they would need bullpen help. They solved just that be acquiring, Drew Storen, in the offseason. Storen certainly has had his bumps in the road, but he has proven to be a solid backend arm. Even though some may feel that, Roberto Osuna, would be the more lights out option in the ninth, both should be drafted this spring.

With Toronto being in win now mode, they have not been shy in shipping off their elite prospects. But one that remains is stud outfielder, Anthony Alford, who could force his way to the majors very soon. He is a center fielder by trade, and has not played above A ball, but his dynamic skill set would help greatly in the Jays outfield. Monitor him this season.

Next: 2016 Fantasy 3B: 20-11

The Jays will score their fair share of runs, but leads may be hard to hold onto with the question marks within the staff. But, Toronto’s ability to score at will, can mask just about any pitching concern. They should be in contention once again this season, and it would not be surprising to see them atop the A.L. East again in 2016.

Looking for more team previews?

NL West: L.A. Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, New York Mets

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

A.L. West: Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros

A.L. Central: Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals

A.L. East: Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

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