New York Yankees: 2016 Fantasy Preview
By Brad Kelly
A.L. East
New York Yankees
Must Own Fantasy Player: Brian McCann
Potential Fantasy Bust: Alex Rodriguez
Prospect to Watch: Jorge Mateo
The New York Yankees surprised a lot of pundits last season by not only winning 87 games, but also being in control of the division for most of the season. However, they lost their lead in the East, which lead to a wildcard berth and eventual early postseason exit. After a quiet offseason, how do the Yankees shape up heading into 2016?
The Yankees will look to be once again led by their veteran core on offense. Starting with, Mark Teixeira, who before a freak injury last season, was producing at a MVP caliber rate. Injuries have been his problem for the last few seasons, and fantasy owners have a hard time looking past it when it come to drafting him. It appeared that his new training regimen last offseason was helping him stay healthy and we could see his production increase as a result, so there is still enough power upside in his bat that would make him worth being a mid-round CI selection.
Moving around the Yankees infield, there are some intriguing fantasy options. While the Yankees did not sign a major league free agent this offseason, they made their additions via trade. Starlin Castro, was brought in to fill the huge void at second base. After a rough beginning to the 2015 season, Castro was eventually moved from short, but excelled after the move.
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He is still widely being overlooked in drafts, and could be a great high upside MI selection. He can still hit, and with not having to worry about losing his job, he is in a great position to bounce back. He double play partner, Didi Gregorius, also started out slow last season, but a mid-season adjustment to his stance turned his season around. He is a low upside MI selection, so he can be ignored on draft day, but he could get hot and be a nice waiver wire add.
Chase Headley struggled last season, seeing his power and OPS dip. Recent reports say that he was battling back issues all of last season, yet decided to play through them, but his stats did not help anyone. He is a low upside CI pick next season, but can still offer a, .250/15 HR/65 RBI/.700 OPS line.
The Yankees outfield has its fair share of fantasy mainstays, but not without some clear question marks either. Jacoby Ellsbury, otherwise known as Mr. Glass, was another Yankees that was having a great season until he suffered a freak injury during a slide into second base. He could never fully recover last season, but it was encouraging to see that he is still capable of producing when on the field.
He is dirt cheap in drafts this season, and rightfully so with his checkered history, but the upside is still enticing enough where he looks like a great OF3 gamble. Following the starting the season great before slowing down theme, Brett Gardner, was having a career type of season before falling off a cliff in the second half.
Like Headley, it was reported that he was battling an injury last season, but this is not the first time that his production has dipped after the break. This spring it was also reported that he was still battling a bone bruise that he suffered in October, so it would be nice to see him get into spring action here soon. He is dirt cheap as well, and he was on pace to set career highs in HR and OPS before he slowed down. Draft accordingly.
Carlos Beltran will look to build on his Hall of Fame resume in 2016, coming off of last season where he was clearly the most consistent Yankees hitter. His first season with the Yankees seems to be an outlier, as it was easy to see that Beltran had his legs under him last season and it allowed him to show the pure stroke that he has been so acclaimed for. He shapes up to be a nice late round OF4 or OF5 gamble that can produce a, .270/20 HR/70 RBI/.800 OPS line.
No one could have guessed that, Alex Rodriguez, would go out and produce the way he did in 2015. He posted 33 HR and 86 RBI, which were his highest totals in five years. He did struggle with velocity and his K% jumped the second half of the season, so fantasy owners will need to keep that in mind if thinking that A-Rod could somehow repeat his success in 2016.
He is listed as potential bust, because of his age and the fact that he only qualifies as a UTIL player next season. His peripheral stats point to him being able to maintain enough power to hit 20+ HR, but it is just hard to bet on him staying healthy and producing at the type of level he did last season.
Owning, Brian McCann, has simply become boring. He has been the perennial 20+ HR/60+ RBI producer, but last season he set showed that he still has a litte more upside that owners may have expected. The AVG will never recover, but his 26 HR and 94 RBI last season, were a welcome sight for fantasy owners who took a chance on him coming off a down season in 2014. He is one of the most overlooked catchers on draft day, yet brings consistency and elite power to a fantasy lineup.
If the Yankees plan on contending this season, they will stability in their rotation. Every pitcher in MLB is a walking injury risk, but Masahiro Tanaka gets treated as though he has one arm. Last season, he was not his ace self and more of a fantasy SP3, but the removal on a bone spur in his elbow could have been the issue. Is the tear in his UCL worrisome, absolutely, but that has driven his draft day cost down so far, that he is now a draft day value pick.
The rest of the staff will consist of a combination of, Luis Severino, C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova. Severino, Pineda, and Eovaldi should be the only options that fantasy owners are looking at on draft day, because of their upside.
Severino was terrific during his cameo last season, and could be the latest rookie pitching sensation. He still needs to hone his command, but the K upside is there. He looks to a nice SP3 or SP4 next season.
Pineda is an interesting case. His 4.37 ERA is ugly, but his 3.34 FIP and minuscule Walk rate are signs that he did not have luck on his side. Pineda may in fact throw too many strikes, but there are enough positive signs there, that make him a draftable option. He is a great SP4 or SP5 gamble this spring, with the hope that this will be the season he puts it all together.
Eovaldi falls under the same umbrella, as his 3.42 FIP does not line up with his 4.20 ERA. Eovaldi has velocity for days, but it tends to flatten out and become hittable. He has begun to introduce a splitter more and more in his arsenal, so hopefully that can parlay itself into him turning a corner next season. He is another fine SP4 or SP5 gamble.
New York knows that they cannot bank on their starts giving them extended innings, so they looked to shorten games by building what could be a historic bullpen. Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman, easily form the best backend in baseball.
Miller and Betances can be drafted regardless of their role as they offer elite K and ERA production. Chapman will lose 30 games of production, which equates to around losing 10 SV, so his value takes a hit. He should still be one of the first RP taken, thanks to his sheer dominance, but he does lose the status of being the best fantasy RP next season. All three players are high end RP targets, and their production can mask a lot of holes in a fantasy rotation.
In what seems to be the first time in forever, the Yankees have top end talent in their farm system. Aaron Judge or James Kaprielian could have been listed as the prospect to watch, but the lack of the infield depth for the Yankees warrants, Jorge Mateo, to get the nod. He is arguably the fastest player in the minors, and could easily force his way to the big league club with another great showing in the minors. Monitor him this season.
Next: Boston Red Sox: 2016 Fantasy Preview
Like every team in baseball, the Yankees season will come down to health. They will need their star hitters to perform and their starters to give at least five innings, but they certainly have the talent to win the division. The A.L. East will be fun to watch.
Looking for more team previews?
NL West: L.A. Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, New York Mets
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
A.L. West: Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
A.L. Central: Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals
A.L. East: Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox