Pittsburgh Pirates Mark Melancon: 2016 Fantasy Projections

Mark Melancon had an all-star season last year. He led the league in saves and was the clear-cut No. 1 closer in the league. Where does he finish in 2016?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have made a lot of improvement over the last couple of seasons and become a powerhouse in the National League Central. With superstar hitters and a true No. 1 pitcher in the rotation, the Pirates have some pieces. One of those pieces that doesn’t get talked about as much is closer Mark Melancon. After a couple of years as the set-up man, he broke out in 2014 and exploded in 2015. What will his production be this season?

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Melancon started the 2014 as the Pirates set-up man behind Jason Grilli. Grilli was traded to the Los Angeles Angels in June, and Melancon became the team’s closer. Melancon was already getting save chances before the trade. He had 10 saves in May alone. He finished the season with a 1.90 ERA, 0.873 WHIP and 33 saves in 71.0 innings. Melancon entered the 2015 season as the Pirates closer.

The Pirates made the right move traded Grilli because of the talent they had in Mark Melancon. While his ERA and WHIP rose just a bit, he was the best closer in the league. He ended with a 2.23 ERA, 0.926 WHIP, 62 strikeouts and 51 saves (53 opportunities) in 76.2 innings. He led the league in saves, made his second All-Star game, and won the NL Reliever of the Year award. He finished No. 1 among closers on the Player Rater, 0.8 points ahead of Jeurys Familia.

Mark Melancon’s strikeout rate dropped, from 9.0 in 2014 to 7.3 in 2015. His walk rate didn’t change much between the two seasons. His fly ball rate rose just 0.3 percent, but his HR/FB rate rose almost four percent. He allowed four home runs last season, double his total from 2014.

In order for Melancon to repeat his performance this season, he needs to pitch more strikes. While that may seem obvious, hitters were holding the bat and waiting for him to throw a strike. He had a 62.5 first-strike percentage, down 6.8 percent from 2014 and 64th among all pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, according to Fangraphs. Getting ahead of batters with a first-pitch strike is important to the at-bat and his overall performance.

Next: Chicago White Sox 2016 Fantasy Preview

Mark Melancon enters the 2016 season as my No. 6 closer. That is a drop off from where he finished last season, but it’s with reason. I don’t see him reaching 50 saves again. The five closers ahead of him have more consistency as a closer. I think his ERA and WHIP will rise again, especially with the lack of strikeouts. He will be a top-10 closer, but my mantra is not to draft closers early. You could wait on Melancon in standard leagues.

Projections: 3-2, 42 saves, 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 62 strikeouts

Draft: Round 11