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Houston Astros Carlos Gomez: 2016 Bounce Back Candidate

By Bill Pivetz

Oct 11, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros center fielder Carlos Gomez (30) hits an RBI single against the Kansas City Royals during the sixth inning in game three of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 11, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros center fielder Carlos Gomez (30) hits an RBI single against the Kansas City Royals during the sixth inning in game three of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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Carlos Gomez was a top-five outfielder just a year ago. Then, he struggled and dealt with multiple injuries. He is a premier bounce back candidate in 2016.

The Houston Astros made a trade last July that brought in some players from the Milwaukee Brewers for a couple of prospects. The Astros are looking to make waves in the American League West. The team lost the division title, but made the playoffs for the first time since 2005. One of those players they brought in was Carlos Gomez. He was once a top-five outfielder, but struggled greatly last season. He is a bounce back candidate this season. 

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Gomez developed into a power and speed guy over the last couple of seasons. From 2012 to 2014, he hit 66 home runs, 197 RBI and .277 with 111 steals. His best season came in 2013 when he hit 24 home runs and .284 with 40 steals. He entered the 2015 season as the fourth-best outfielder and eighth-best player overall. At the end of the season, he barely cracked the top-200.

In the first 74 games with the Brewers, he hit eight home runs, 43 RBI and .262 with seven steals. At that pace, 145-game season, he would have had 16 home runs, 84 RBI and 14 steals, his worst statistical season since 2011. That actually would have been better than what he finished with.

Carlos Gomez hit 12 home runs, 56 RBI and .255 with 17 steals last season. You can do the math to see what he did with Houston. My colleague Brad Kelly proclaimed that Gomez was the biggest fantasy bust in all of baseball last year. He finished 178th on the Player Rater, 0.02 points behind teammate Will Harris. Who? Exactly.

He dealt with a sore right hip throughout most of the season, which halted the trade to the New York Mets. He has top-10 outfield potential as we’ve seen over the last couple of seasons. However, with the significant injury last year, I don’t trust him that early in drafts.

Carlos Gomez strikes out frequently, career 22.5 strikeout percentage. He has over 100 strikeouts in the last three seasons with just 115 combined walks in that span. His ground ball rate went up 5.1 percent from 2014 to 2015. While his fly ball rate dropped on the season, it did improve when he went to Houston. In a full season with the Astros, Gomez is likely to see an improvement in the power numbers.

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The Astros lineup, and team in general, is going to be fun to watch this season. With Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve leading the young Houston team, Carlos Gomez should bounce back big time. He will get his power and speed back and have his fifth-straight 10 HR/10 SB season. He won’t be a first-round pick like last year, but top-60 isn’t bad considering how bad he was in 2015.

Projections: 135 hits, 17 home runs, 65 RBI, .260 average, 22 steals

Draft: Round 6

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