New York Yankees Mark Teixeira: Can We Trust Him?

Mark Teixiera has been one of the best fantasy producers at first base since he made his debut in 2003. We have seen him go from his plus power and average days, to now being simply being a power threat, but the question still remains can we trust his success is 2015 to be repeated next season?

One of the only reasons the Yankees were battling for the division last season was that Tex reemerged as the threat that the Yankees needed him to be which, combined with rebounds from Alex Rodriguez and Brian McCann, formed a fearsome middle of the lineup. Tex ended 2015 with a, .255/31 HR/79 RBI/.906 OPS line, ultimately being his most productive season since 2011.

But, as the baseball gods seem to always have it go, Tex’s brilliant season was derailed by a freak injury in August after he fouled a ball of his leg, consequentially, breaking it in the process. Tex made the All-Star team last season and even was in the MVP conversation before this happened, so it is safe to assume that he was on the verge of finishing the year with even bigger numbers and further building his fantasy value next season.

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Unfortunately, over the last four years this has been the case surrounding Tex as he has had to battle injury after injury. It has been his wrist, back, hamstring and now leg, so for owners the red flags were there before last season and still remain there now going forward. However, there are going to be two ways to approach drafting Tex nest season. On one hand, you will have owners that acknowledge that Tex can still produce but the injury history is just too much to look past. Then there will be those owners who see Tex as a prime power candidate available later in drafts as detractors look past him, thus allowing others to snag Tex as their CI or UTIL option.

For me, I fall into that latter draft strategy as power threats and run producers are worth their weight in gold. If we look at what we can replace during the season on the waiver wire, homerun and RBI producers are the toughest to find because they rarely even exist now in baseball. Only 20 players hit at least 30 homers last season, and only 18 batters hit at least 25.

Tex had 79 RBI before his injury and had averaged at least 18 RBI per month till that point, so if we conservatively estimate 15 RBI for the last two months of the season you have a 100 RBI contributor, which only 13 players were able to do in 2015.

This is projection based and would have required Tex to keep his success up all season, which he showed he was capable of doing before his injury. One of the biggest drawbacks about owning him in prior seasons was that he would get off to notoriously slow starts. While he did not hit over .258 the first two months of the season he consistently offered power, eight homers in April and six homers in May, and RBI production, 18 RBI in April and 17 in May.

Thanks in large part to signing with the Yankees in 2009, Tex sacrificed his swing to become an all or nothing pull hitter because of the short porch in right field. He has even went on record to practically say that AVG is the most overrated stat in baseball, so do not expect him to start slapping the ball to the opposite field and have a decent AVG. Anything over .250 is a plus, and owners know that we do not pick him for the AVG anyway. He did only have one month hitting below a .258 AVG, if we exclude his injury disrupted August, so he was not killing owners in that department like some of the other high power names.

I think we can all agree that while he is injury prone, he still is one of the better power options in the game at this point of his career. If we look further into his splits it is interesting to see that he actually had more HR and hits on the road last season. We all know that he is going to hit in Yankees stadium because it fits his swing so well, so to see the production on the road is encouraging.

One last encouraging sign lies in his peripherals. I, like some others in the fantasy community, put a lot of stock in a hitter’s power ability by their LD% and hard contact rate. For me, it serves as base for believing in whether or not a player is a power hitter or had one fluke year where certain rates all spiked at the same time.

Tex’s LD% jumped up from 22% in 2014 to 24% in 2015, which looks like a minute difference, but when looked at in context, the last two seasons have been his highest LD rates since 2008. Same goes for the rise in his Hard%, which was 35.3% in 2015 compared to 34.9% in 2014. The increase is not huge by any means, but it is an uptick nonetheless and shows that he is not just getting lucky all of a sudden, these rates are also the highest they have been since 2010.

Injuries are a part of the game for everyone, not just a select few. While some seem more prone to miss time than others, Tex has certainly fit that bill these last four seasons, he still has managed solid production when in his on the field. Will the room make joking comments about whomever takes Tex, yes, are they warranted, yes, that does not mean he cannot hold value for owners next season,no.

He went into last season with a new training regimen and eating plan which we all saw had a part in him reestablishing himself before a fouling a ball of his leg which, thankfully, was not an injury that arose organically. He will be a key factor in the Yankees hopeful success next season, and for owners alike who may be available to snag him later in the draft. I would not invest in him as my starting 1B, but he certainly is one of the best CI or UTIL options in the draft. And he is even in a contract year if that helps you any.

2016 Early Projection: 135 G/.250/35 HR/85 RBI/.900 OPS

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New York Yankees Mark Teixeira: Can We Trust Him in 2016?

By Brad Kelly | Jan 4, 2016