Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon: Amongst the Elites in 2016?

What do we do with Colorado Rockies hitters?

This is one of the age old debates in fantasy baseball as all owners probably have an opinion on the lingering “Coors Field Effect”. But, what do we say about Colorado batters that are not defined by their home ballpark and actually produced both home and away?

This brings me to the meteoritic rise of one Charlie Blackmon, who has had back to back great fantasy seasons, and also just happens to don a Rockies uniform. After posting an out of nowhere line of, .287/19 HR/72 RBI/28 SB/82 R in 2014 and with a, .287/17 HR/58 RBI/43 SB/93 R., encore performance in 2015, Blackmon has entrenched himself amongst the best OF options in the game.

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Now we usually associate the “elite” outfielder class with the cant miss producers like Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton, but then are the guys like Blackmon who fall through the cracks. Yet, produce at similar elite rates and often turn into mid round gems rather than getting drafted in the early rounds.

The main thing reasoning behind Blackmon not getting a lot of love heading into 2015 was that owners were scared off by 2014 being a fluke year from Blackmon. Which was rightfully a valid concern, but one too often than not, placed on Blackmon without looking further into peripherals. Even though Blackmon rose to fantasy stardom out of relative obscurity and with a crazy month of April where he hit near .400 and looked like Babe Ruth, owners could see that Blackmon had the promise to turn into a stud OF producer.

For me, I had Blackmon pegged at worse as a 20 HR/20 SB candidate heading into 2015. This designation allowed me to not fully overvalue just one breakout season, but also kept in mind that Blackmon was a player not to forget about on draft day when you are looking for as many multi category producers as possible. What we saw from Blackmon far exceeded what I thought owners would get from him, as I could not for see him repeating his production to the point where he would be a top 10 fantasy OF in 2015.

The biggest surprise for fantasy owners has to be the speed element that Blackmon brought in 2015. Even though his K numbers rose, his walks and OBP increased just as well, which allowed him to become a bigger speed threat than one would imagine. Blackmon by no means is a small guy either, he’s 6’3 and listed at 210 lbs., so to see him swipe 40+ bases was a welcome surprise. His aggressiveness on the base paths added a whole other element to his game and vaulted him up the ranks, so there should be no reason to think that he should all of a sudden get the red light on the base paths in 2016.

His homers dropped by two from 19 in 2014 to 17 in 2015 which seems like a negligible drop because his LD% actually rose to over 30% in 2015, so he should be able to fall right into that 15-20 HR range. His contact rate stayed consistent and right around league average and he should an overall more patient approach at the plate, further cementing the idea that he has no red flags in terms of thinking his production will drop off.

I have seen some fantasy pundits completely ward off picking Rockies batters because of their home/road splits. While there is some merit and glaring player examples that speak to that inconsistency, Blackmon has shown the last two seasons he could produce anywhere.

During his breakout 2014 season he had a home split of, .331/13 HR/48 RBI/19 SB, and a road split of, .241/6 HR/24/9 SB. Now clearly the gap there is glaring and one that would warrant people to question whether I have any idea what I’m talking about. But, turn the page to 2015 and we see a clear progression in terms of production.

His 2015 splits at home were, .331/7 HR/35 RBI/24 SB, and on the road his splits read, .238/10 HR/23 RBI/19 SB. Clearly Coors Field has an effect, that is not a secret to anyone, but outside of AVG we see a player that can still produce at a productive clip even without the ball flying around like in Colorado.

He has played over 150+ games the last two seasons, so that comes to about at least 70 games on the road and at home. At home he produces like a top-5 fantasy player in the league which largely increases his value and makes selection him so lucrative. On the road, we have a player that still produces at a top-25 OF rate, so there certainly a reason for optimism.

Blackmon may not be a first round pick, but there is no reason why he should fall past being taken by the round five, and that may be even to low. Blackmon has taken on the ever elusive 20 HR/40 SB upside tag, and that skillset is definitely a game changer week to week. Will he have low points on some long road stretches in the season, yes, but you can see what at worse he offers.

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In my OF rankings, Blackmon will firmly be in the “elite tier” and have about a 2^nd round expected price tag. The stench of a fluke 2014 has fully been negated and other fantasy owners that once shunned him will fully be all over him at drafts this season. It will be up to you how aggressively you target him and the advantages he brings. He matches perfectly with any first round pick in 2016, so feel free to make him a high value target.

2016 Early Projections: .286/19 HR/65 RBI/40 SB/90 R

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