Washington Nationals Brandon Phillips: Dat Dude in D.C.

***Update**** For the second time in two days, it seems as though another player deal has fallen through. The deal that would send Phillips to the Nats seems to be shelved at this point and it looks as though Phillips will be a Red next season. His value remains the same, with a power uptick now more likely thanks to him staying in Cincinnati.

As the Cincinnati Reds continue their fire sale, one of the biggest and notable faces of the organization appears to be shipped out. Brandon Phillips looks to be headed to the Nationals where he looks to solidify their second base position. Phillips has had a solid career panning over his last nine years with the Reds, and even though he is entering his age 35 season, he still looks like a steady producer. After the 2014 season, where Phillips was slowed by injuries and struggled mightily, many people in both fantasy and real life wrote him off. Thinking that this was the beginning of his decline and fall from the fantasy graces.

Phillips however, was having none of it as he would go on to bounce back to post a solid, .294/12 HR/70 RBI/23 SB line, which had many owners who took a flier on him in at the draft thinking they got the vintage edition. Phillips has cemented his place among the most solid fantasy options at second base thanks in part to his consistency, owners will remember his four straight 18 HR seasons prior to 2014 and the constant RBI production he was able to post as well. His AVGs has fluctuated some, but they have never dipped below .260 which in today’s age of baseball is pretty solid.

Phillips bounce back season was thanks in large part to him remaining healthy and basically making more contact. He dropped his strikeout rate to its lowest point of his career, but also saw his walks drop at the same time. The tradeoff is that he is making more contact which leads to more hits, and the walks have always plagued Phillips thanks to his aggressive approach at the plate.I think for most fantasy owners, the biggest surprise of Phillips season was his steal output. He stole 23 bases and was only caught 3 times, so he was certainly effective in swiping bags last season. The 23 were his highest since 2009, and it will remain to be seen if can keep that output up in 2016.

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He is going to be reunited with the ever aggressive Dusty Baker, so as long as he doesn’t get banged up one would think that Phillips will flirt with the 20 steal mark again because it really serves as fantasy boost for his value. Phillips has never really been overly lucky BABIP wise either, so his AVG numbers normally speak true to his ability so he should remain a .270+ hitter.

One red flag for Phillips move to Washington may be in the power department. Now Phillips has largely been one of the premium power options at 2B, he had no lower than 17 homers from 2006-2013, but over the last two years he only has 20 total. If we throw out 2014 because he was effected by a thumb injury for most of the season, his line drive has actually climbed. In 2015 it was a healthy 32% which is usually an indicator of a solid power output, not just 12 homers. It seems to be that the problem is that Philips cannot get his HR/FB rate, which is the rate of each his batted fly balls and line drives turning into homers, back up to the rate where he was challenging hitting 20 bombs a year.

In those seasons his percentages were in the 7-9% range, and last season it was only 4.8%. So either Phillips has become a true line drive or gap to gap hitter, or he is due for an uptick back near his career norms. The only bad thing about betting on an uptick is his move from Great American Ballpark to Nationals Park. Now Nationals Park is actually just about in the middle of hitter’s rankings, but it pales in comparison to Great American Ballpark which is routinely a top 5 hitter’s park.

Next: Chicago White Sox Todd Frazier: SouthSider in 2016

With 2B being a weak position fantasy wise, Phillips will more than likely be a starting option in most leagues. For me, I would feel more comfortable selecting him as my MI or UTIL, just in case the steals don’t return and the power doesn’t rise. I do not expect both to vanish and Baker’s presence will definitely help. So do not fret if you leave the draft with him as your starter and if you manage to snag a solid option at 2B and add Phillips later, you are in good shape as well.

2016 Early Projections: .280/15 HR/70 RBI/20 SB/80 R

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