Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ: Fantasy Fallout
By Brad Kelly
It did not take long for the Toronto Blue Jays to make their first free agent splash as they brought back J.A. Happ today. Happ was with the team from 2012-2014 before departing to Seattle in 2015. Happ was pretty mediocre with the Mariners before being traded to the Pirates where his excellent second half of the season just made him $36 million richer.
From a fantasy standpoint, Happ has only been worth owning during the hot stretches he would go over a handful of starts. Last season when the Pirates got a hold of him though, he turned out to be a fantasy ace over the second half.
Happ’s career really took off with the Phillies through 2008-2010, where he became a staple of the rotation posting ERAs that never rose above 3.70. He has always been a finesse pitcher and it always seemed like his success was more of a smoke and mirrors act more than just his raw stuff taking over. Last season was the only time where Happ’s FIP was actually below 4.00 in his career!
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Now I do not want to take anything away from Happ and his rebirth last season. You do not nearly drop your ERA by three runs because you are lucky. The Pirates have the pristine reputation for being able to salvage these types of castoff pitchers and turning them into gems.
Happ’s resurgence seems to be tied to his ability to become more aggressive in the strike zone and pound the plate with his better offerings like most notably his fastball. Happ will not blow anyone way with his velocity, but by him attacking the zone with it early in counts and getting ahead of batters as a result, it allowed his curveball and changeup to become even more effective in getting batters out.
I figured Happ may have some late round appeal in 2016 fantasy drafts if he could wind up back with the Pirates, or in any favorable situation. Unfortunately, a reunion with the Blue Jays was not exactly the best landing spot in terms of fantasy value.
The Blue Jays had to address to the rotation after possibly losing David Price and Mark Buehrle via free agency so definitely needed someone to come in and offer quality innings. It just does not seem as though that Happ is the answer. He has not thrown for over 173 innings in any season, nor has ever struck out more than 151 batters in any single season either.
By digging further we can also see that Happ is not doing himself any favors by coming back to the AL East either. If we look at just his ERA in the ballparks within his division they are not too pretty. I will concede that his 3.38 ERA in Toronto is impressive, but his 4.05 ERA in Baltimore, 6.17 ERA in Boston, 4.88 ERA in New York, and 7.64 ERA in Tampa, do not scream optimism.
Therefore, his fantasy value is 2016 is tied to whether you believe or not that Happ’s newfound pitching approach can carry him over the entire course of a season and if he can use that to combat the mediocrity he had with the Blue Jays in the first place. This is not aimed to bash Happ’s talent, it is just a reminder to the fantasy community to get his great end of 2015 out of your head, and now reevaluate his value based off his current situation.
Early 2016 Projection: 10 W/4.44 ERA/145 K/1.45 WHIP