Marco Estrada: What to Expect From Him in 2016
By Bill Pivetz
Superstar starting pitchers are hard to come by, yet there seem to be more of them getting the call up to the majors each year. Whether it’s developing a young arm or signing a foreign player, teams are looking for that ace pitcher that can carry the team when called upon. The Toronto Blue Jays might have found their guy in Marco Estrada for the next couple of years.
The Blue Jays signed Marco Estrada to a two-year deal with $26 million guaranteed. He had a career year this past season, going 13-8 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 131 strikeouts.
He also had a great playoff showing where he went 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 15 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. In his last start of the 2015 season, against the Kansas City Royals, Estrada went 7.2 innings, allowing one run on three hits and one walk while striking out five.
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Marco Estrada was an average pitcher in his five years with the Milwaukee Brewers. He went 23-25 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 139 games, 521.0 innings.
I’m not sure if it was the move to the AL East or what, but there was great improvement from 2014 to 2015. While his K/9 dropped and BB/9 rose, his HR/9 and BABIP dropped greatly, 1.19 and .216 respectively. Some may look at that as luck, based on his 4.40 FIP, though. He had a 52.3 fly ball percentage, highest since 2010, but just an 8.7 HR/FB percentage.
Rogers Centre is in the middle of the pack when it comes to runs, home runs and RBI per game. It was 15th in home runs and 26th in hits. As long as Estrada can keep the balls low, which is hard for him, he has a good chance to be a top-15 pitcher. He finished 19th among pitchers this year on the Player Rater, which is great for an undrafted player.
The Blue Jays need Marco Estrada to be the pitcher we saw in 2015. With R.A. Dickey in his 40s and both Mark Buehrle and David Price on the free-agent market, Toronto needed to lock up Estrada. In a struggling AL East, Estrada has a great chance to post similar numbers.
Projections: 14-8, 3.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 134 strikeouts
Draft: Round 14