Zack Cozart or Jose Reyes: Which Shortstop to Own in 2016?
By Bill Pivetz
Position scarcity is a term fantasy owners should be familiar with. If not, I’ll help you. It means that a certain position is very top-heavy with four or five big names and then the rest are just average players. A serviceable fifth outfielder is easier to find than a viable second shortstop. That being said, do you use an early pick on a shortstop or wait until the later rounds and draft other positions?
Let’s look at the top-five shortstops drafted based on ESPN ADP this season. Troy Tulowitzki (14.2), Ian Desmond (28.7), Hanley Ramirez (28.9), Jose Reyes (43.5) and Starlin Castro (81.8). Tulo and Desmond had good seasons, Ramirez and Reyes were huge disappointments, and Castro was played well, but not enough to be a top-five shortstop.
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Now, this is where my question comes in. To those Reyes owners, looking back, who could you have drafted instead of Reyes? Could you have waited on a different shortstop seven rounds later? The answer is yes.
Reyes’ played the 2015 season with the Toronto Blue Jays and Colorado Rockies. He played in 116 games, had 132 hits, seven home runs, 53 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .274 batting average. Those seven home runs were the lowest since his shortened 2009 season. And it looks like Reyes’ speed is declining. He had 30 stolen bases last year, 40 in 2012 and 39 in 2011.
Let’s say you waited on shortstop. You could have ended up with Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart. While Cozart missed over 100 games with a knee injury, his first half numbers were good. In 53 games, he had 50 hits, nine home runs, 28 RBI, three stolen bases and a .258 average. I was someone who had Cozart, but lucky enough to add his replacement Eugenio Suarez. Suarez took over on June 11. In 97 games, he hit 13 home runs, 48 RBI and stole four bases with a .280 batting average.
Reds shortstops combined for 154 hits, 22 home runs, 76 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .272 batting average in 150 games. Besides the stolen bases, Cozart and Suarez combined to be a better shortstop than Reyes. Using these numbers to compare them to other shortstops, they would have been T-1 in home runs, third in RBI, and fifth in batting average.
Both Cozart and Suarez went undrafted according to ESPN ADP.
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When he went down with his injury, the expected time for recovery was about nine months. In an interview last month with MLB.com, Cozart said “I anticipate being stronger than ever at Spring Training.” He said the rehab process is going well and should be 100 percent before Spring Training.
With Cozart bumping Suarez out of a job, which shortstop would you have for 2016? Let’s assume Cozart is healthy and shows no signs of setback, Suarez could be a top-10 shortstop. If I can wait until the bottom-half of the draft before selecting Cozart while I stack up on outfielders, power hitters and pitchers, then I will.
In my quick shortstop rankings, I have Cozart 10th, but I could easily move him up a spot or two. If I were drafting today, I would hold off on drafting a top-five shortstop because the value isn’t much greater than what Cozart can provide 10 rounds later.