Ervin Santana: Do Not Buy Into Recent Success
By Bill Pivetz
The starting pitching has been amazing this year. No-hitters, double-digit strikeout games and many other dominating performances. There have, however, been some not-so-stellar outings from starting pitchers. Many pitchers have been on both sides of that spectrum. One Minnesota Twins pitcher is on the upswing after his last three games. Though, I’m here to tell you not to buy into Ervin Santana‘s recent success.
Santana made is return from an 80-game suspension on July 5 and had a good outing. He went eight innings and allowed two runs on three hits and three walks while striking out eight. His next start? Four innings, six earned runs and three home runs.
If you look at his 2015 numbers, it’s been an up-and-down season for Ervin Santana. August was just a steep decline start after start until recently. In his first five August starts (0-3), he went 24.2 innings, giving up 25 runs on 39 hits and 11 walks with a 9.12 ERA. This includes two starts where he didn’t get out of the third inning.
In his last three starts (3-0), Santana pitched 22 innings and gave up three runs on 18 hits and four walks while striking out 27 batters. He had back-to-back double-digit strikeout games., August 30 and Sept. 5.
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With the fantasy baseball season coming to a close, fantasy owners are looking for every bit of help they can get to either make the playoffs or solidify their championship team. Ervin Santana has been picked up in 16.5 percent of ESPN.com leagues over the last week.
It’s been a good ending for a rather disappointing season. However, I don’t think these three starts are worth fantasy owners rushing to the waiver wire to pick up Santana. Unless you are completely decimated at pitcher, you should stay away from him.
Santana has some of the worst numbers of his career this season. He has a 2.93 BB/9, 2.38 K/BB, 1.35 HR/9 and 17.8 strikout percentage, worst since 2012. To pile on some more, his ground ball (39.7) and fly ball (39.3) rates are the worst since the 2010 season.
Ervin Santana’s next start will be against the Detroit Tigers on Sept. 16. Since the All-Star break, the Tigers are 15th in batting average, but are struggling in the power stats. The matchup looks promising, but Santana can easily throw his recent success in the trash with another bad outing.
There are plenty of other good pitchers available on the waiver wire that you should be able to avoid Ervin Santana. He is nowhere near the pitcher he was five years ago, and these past three games are not going to change that.