Chris Archer is Missing the Target
By Bill Pivetz
Starting pitching is easy to find on the waiver wire. An excellent one is a completely different story. When owners covertly drafted Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Chris Archer in the 15th round , no one expected this kind of season out of him. The first half was amazing. The second half, not so much. So, what happened to Chris Archer?
Last year was Archer’s best to date. He finished 10-9 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 173 strikeouts in 32 starts. Digging deeper, hee had 8.00 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and 3.39 FIP, which is good based on his ERA.
More from FanSided
- Joe Burrow owes Justin Herbert a thank you note after new contract
- Chiefs gamble at wide receiver could already be biting them back
- Braves-Red Sox start time: Braves rain delay in Boston on July 25
- Yankees: Aaron Boone gives optimistic return date for Aaron Judge
- MLB Rumors: Yankees-Phillies trade showdown, Mariners swoop, India goes to Seattle
That was, until the 2015 season began. As of this post, Archer has a 10-9 record with a 2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 194 strikeouts in 25 starts. He has 10.91 K/9, 2.31 BB/9 and 2.64 FIP. He has seven games with 10 or more strikeouts in a game. Again, the ERA and FIP are pretty darn close, so there is no luck involved during his outings.
However, his recent outings haven’t been Chris Archer-like. Since July 8, seven starts, Archer has a 4.87 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In two of those starts, he allowed seven or more earned runs. His most recent outing against the Texas Rangers was arguably his worst of the season. He went just 5.1 innings, allowing seven runs on 11 hits and three walks and struck out just four batters.
As a 15th-round pick, owners were not expecting Clayton Kershaw-type numbers. Though, when he doesn’t allow a run in four of his first five starts of the season, the likelihood of that grew. He and Chris Sale were going back and forth atop the strikeouts leaderboard.
Throughout his career, Archer has always been better in the first half. Chris Archer has a 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 302 strikeouts in his career first half and 3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in the second half. If you are an Archer owner, you were likely not trading him for anything less than Kershaw or Sale types. Now, I bet you wish you could have traded him for either of them.
More from Fantasy Baseball
- 5 fantasy baseball waiver wire pivots to replace Triston McKenzie
- Fantasy baseball mock draft 2023, 12-team: Aaron Judge over Trea Turner?
- 3 fantasy baseball sleepers being drafted too late
- NBA DFS picks December 25: Merry Bucking Christmas
- Fantasy Baseball: Hot pitchers worthy of starting this weekend
There doesn’t seem to be any signs of injury. Archer is still striking out double-digit batters. He has thrown over 100 pitches in six of his last seven starts. And in that seventh start, he threw 98 pitches.
The noticeable thing is that opposing batters are hitting Chris Archer pitches far into the outfield, and more often over the fence. He has a 10.6 HR/FB percentage and 33.0 fly ball percentage this season, a jump of 3.7 and 1.9 percent, respectively, compared to last year.
With all of the numbers out in the open, Archer is still a top-15 starting pitcher. He is No. 13 among starters on ESPN’s Player Rater. That ranking is helped by his first-half numbers, because he ranks 62nd over the last 30 days. He has just been rocked by a couple of good offenses.
Chris Archer owners, myself included, hope that he gets back on track against the Houston Astros on Thursday. The Astros offense are 25th in batting average and tied for seventh in strikeouts, so the matchup is in Archer’s favor.