Prospect Watch: Luis Severino Gets the Call

Mar 3, 2015; Clearwater, FL, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher

(91) throws a pitch during a spring training baseball game at Bright House Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Another day, and you guessed it, another top prospect gets the call to the majors. This has been the major narrative of the entire 2015 season, and it is just going to continue the rest of the year. The newest entry to the fantasy prospect watch, is that of the New York Yankees RHP Luis Severino.

After a stunningly quiet trade deadline, many Yankees fans were puzzled by the lack of a pitching addition. Well after the trade deadline passed, it seems as though the addition that the Yankees had in mind was Severino all along. A very welcome sight for many Yankees fans that have been highly anticipating his insertion into the rotation.

Severino signed with the Yankees at the age of 18, and has methodically rose through not only the Yankees prospects ranks, but also the top prospect lists across all of baseball. I will concede that my Yankee fandom does has me excited and anxiously waiting for his debut. But, at the same time I can also be objective and fairly analyze his fantasy value going forward.

The major knock on Severino has been his size, as he lacks the prototype frame that scouts seek out. He is listed as 6’0, but that is very gracious even with spikes on. The one thing that has never been questioned though is his stuff. I find it quite ironic that last week there was a certain an “undersized” Dominican Republican named Pedro Martinez that was enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Now before you all think I am crazy, I do not think that Sverino is the next Pedro, that would be crazy, but I do feel that Severino can become a top of the rotation arm.

Besides being short and Dominican, the similarities’ do not stop there. Pedro claim to fame was his devastating changeup that in its prime, was one of the most unhittable pitches in the history of baseball. Severino features the same thing, his changeup has been lauded as one of, if not the best in the minors.

Severino’s arsenal does not stop there, while his changeup is his put away pitch, his fastball sits regularly in the mid-90’s, and he has been able to showcase his slider more this season, giving him a three pitch mix that can definitely play at the big league level.

From a fantasy perspective Severino should provide some backend rotation value going forward. I have always been a little hesitant on any AL East pitching prospects because the lineups and ballparks are hard environments to thrive in.

With Severino’s arsenal though I am more willing to take the gamble because he can limit walks and maintain command throughout the game due to his simple and compact delivery. One thing to monitor though is that his GB% has dropped in 2015, as he has been facing tougher competition. I think a key to his hopeful success is to keep the ball down and continue to limit his FB%.

I know that some detractors would like to point at that Severino rarely makes it past 5 IP in most of his starts. Owners should not pay too much attention to that as Brian Cashman basically admitted that this was a deliberate measure to limit his innings, thus making him completely without limitations when the Yankees needed his service this year.

Severino has been dominant in the minors over his 19 starts while splitting time between AA and AAA. On the season he currently has a 2.45 ERA, 98 K’s and a 0.99 WHIP, through those starts and has really shown the flashes and progression you seek out in a top arm.

His SO/9 in 2015 is at a nice 8.9 clip, even though it did drop when he was promoted to AAA. Clearly tougher competition is going to cause a decrease in some peripheral stats, but that is too be expected. Severino will more than likely be a popular pickup in most all fantasy leagues before he even makes his first start, due to him being a Yankee and a top prospect. Severino should slide into the newly vacated rotation spot that Michael Pineda has left. His first start should come the beginning of this week, in New York against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox still have some potent bats, but have been prone to offensively struggle as well, making it a good barometer of what Severino’s value may be going forward. The Yankees should have be patient with Severino and give him time in the majors, unlike what they did with Rob Refsnyder earlier this season.

The Yankees sat on their hands at the deadline banking on Severino to some in and supply them with quality innings. I expect the same thing fantasy wise. I am projecting him to be able to supply an ERA that should rest somewhere in the upper 3.00’s, with solid K totals and the chance to supply a decent amount of wins.

I think Severino is well worth an add in any format as he has the upside to be a nice addition to fantasy rotations. As we have seen all year, prospects can come up and be big contributors almost immediately. Severino could be that next guy, so add him now before he becomes an even hotter commodity.