Fantasy Baseball Second Half Predictions: AL Central

Jul 6, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) pitches during the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball is taking a break from the regular season to enjoy the festivities of the All-Star break. With the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game behind us, we just wait until Friday. As a result, there isn’t much going on fantasy wise. Here is the second-half focus on the AL Central.

In case you missed it, here are the predictions for the NL West, AL West and NL Central.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central. Can they hold everyone else off and finally win the division? It depends on the offense and pitching.

The loss of Alex Gordon for eight weeks will hurt the team, obviously, but they have the pieces to work around that. Lorenzo Cain is hitting .316 with eight home runs, 42 RBI and 17 stolen bases. Salvador Perez and Kendrys Morales are both providing the Royals with power. If these three continue their surges and Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas pick it up, these Royals can see themselves back in the World Series. 

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However, the pitching staff has been a roller coaster this season. Not a single starter has an ERA below 3.00. I picked up Chris Young a couple of times as a spot starter, but nothing more. Edinson Volquez isn’t allowing a lot of runs, but can’t make it deep into games. He averaged 5.53 innings in his last five starts. I would stay away from every Royals pitcher until something changes. But I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

Minnesota Twins

I recently wrote an article comparing Brian Dozier and Jason Kipnis. Without recapping the whole thing, I said if I had to choose one, I would pick Dozier. He has better power and some speed to go along with it. He and the Twins are getting help from veteran Torii Hunter, 14 home runs and 49 RBI.

Kyle Gibson is pitching very well and should continue that streak in the second half. He has five straight starts with two or less earned runs. Ervin Santana had a good first game after returning from an 80-game suspension. It didn’t last long because he gave up six runs in four innings. He will pitch like this for the rest of the season. Be careful if you pick up Santana at any point in the second half.

Glen Perkins has been a top-five closer throughout the season. He currently ranks third on ESPN’s Player Rater. If you need closer help, Perkins would be a big get, but it will cost you a lot. The Twins have provided him with a lot of run support and that should continue in the second half.

Detroit Tigers

J.D. Martinez is finally having the breakout season we expected last year. He has 25 home runs and a .289 batting average. He’s picked up the slack quite nicely since Miguel Cabrera went down with a calf strain. He will be a top-20 outfielder for the rest of the season.

Shane Greene had a good first three starts to the season, but it quickly came crashing down. He ended the first half with a 6.32 ERA. I don’t see him turning it around this season. Maybe next year, Greene.

Anthony Gose has been a nice first-half surprise for the Tigers. He is batting .282 with 38 runs scored and 14 stolen bases. I drafted him in the 25th round in our Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks league, but dropped him within the first week and regret it. Those 14 stolen bases are hard to find at this point in the season. If you need help in that category, try making a move for him. I expect another 10-12 stolen bases.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians were a lot of experts’ pick to represent the American League in the World Series. Now, they’ll be lucky to make it to the playoffs as a Wild Card. The offense is hitting a .219 batting average and .335 slugging percentage in the month of July, 24th and 27th respectively.

Unfortunately for Indians fans and fantasy owners, there isn’t much to look forward to in the second half. All of the relevant players are already owned. Brandon Moss is in an 0-for-11 slump, Michael Bourn is 0-for-13 in his last five games. 

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Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are doing everything they can, but without a sufficient offense, they have little fantasy value. Kluber and Bauer have 24 combined quality starts, but just 12 wins. I like all three of these pitchers and are buy-low candidates in the second half.

Chicago White Sox

What a difference a year makes. At the break last season, Jose Abreu already hit 29 home runs. This year, he has just 14. However, he hit just seven in the second half of 2014. So, maybe he’s just saving himself until baseball resumes on Friday. He is another buy-low hitter.

Melky Cabrera is a second-half waiver wire pickup, He has three home runs and nine RBI in the last 15 days. He’s been picked up in 11 percent of ESPN leagues over the last week.

The White Sox have arguably the best rotation in the league. Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana all have ERAs 2.53 or lower over the last 15 days. They are in the top-20 among starting pitchers on the Player Rater in that span. Try to grab at least one of these pitchers for the second half. Quintana is available in about 47 percent of leagues.

Those are my thoughts on the AL Central. There is some good pitching, but a lot of good hitting. The next division is the NL East.