Speculating for Saves
Jun 23, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Oakland Athletics relief pitcher Drew Pomeranz (13) gets his first save against the Texas Rangers during the game at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Athletics defeated the Rangers 8-6. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The early season closer carousel has come and gone where Andrew Miller snatched the job from Dellin Betances, Steve Cishek pitched himself to AA (and has since returned to Miami), and Mark Melancon has recovered nicely from early season velocity dip. Most closers are locked into their roles, but there could be saves coming available in the near future with the non-waiver Trade Deadline approaching.
The most obvious situation is to look at the Phillies because they are trying to move Jonathan Papelbon. Of course, Papelbon is already owned and a change of scenery should only add a handful of more save opportunities, since he would go to a contender and get off the high school team he is currently playing for. His replacement is Ken Giles, and he was a popular pick on draft days because people assumed that Papelbon would have been on another team already.
As a result, there is no new or exciting information regarding the Phillies because the fantasy fallout is already known if Papelbon is traded. I would assume that the Blue Jays or the Cubs would be his most likely destination. As for now, I believe that Giles is worth owning if you have the room or just simply need to improve your ratios.
Jason Grilli of the Atlanta Braves has an outside shot at getting traded, but the Braves are only 5 games out of the division and only two games under .500. In the off-chance that Grilli is dealt to a contender, my guess is that Jim Johnson is the favorite to take over the role. Johnson saved 101 games for the Orioles in 2012 and 2013, but I do not really trust Johnson.
With only a slim probability of Grilli being moved, I would wait to add Jim Johnson until any concrete talks of trading Jason Grilli surface. If you pair that with Johnson’s potential for ineffectiveness, then he ranks at the bottom of my speculative save list.
After Papelbon, the next most likely closer on the move seems to be Tyler Clippard of the Oakland A’s. Since 2009, Clippard has been a very reliable reliever with a solid ERA and a nice strikeout rate. After six years in the Washington pen including a 32 save 2012 season, Clippard took over the Oakland closer gig after Sean Doolittle hurt his shoulder in the offseason. Clippard strikeouts are down and his walks are way up, but he is still a desirable option for a team like Toronto.
If Clippard were moved, then I believe Drew Pomeranz would be the next player in line to take the ball in the 9th inning. The fact that Pomeranz is a lefty makes him less likely than a RHP to close, but I believe he would be their best option if Clippard is dealt. With Doolittle on the shelf for a long time, Pomeranz may be worth a pickup now or definitely as soon as noise is made about Clippard’s future.
Despite the White Sox sitting in the AL Central cellar, I could not imagine them moving David Robertson after he just signed a multi-year contract beginning this season. Even if Robertson was dealt, I would be in no rush to pick up any other reliever currently in their pen. The three next relievers in line would be Zach Putnam, Zach Duke, and Jake Petricka, and I have no interest in any of them.
Out of all the possible closers on the move, the most far-fetched possibility would be the Reds selling Aroldis Chapman. After the Reds host the All-Star Game, they are quite likely to sell off Johnny Cueto and a few other assets to build for the long term. While it is hard to imagine someone as amazing as Chapman being moved, the Reds are on the verge of selling.
J.J. Hoover would be the leader in the house to take over in the very remote chance that Chapman is dealt. It would certainly be the shocker of the Trade Deadline, but hey, this is all speculation.