Julio Teheran: The Roller Coaster Ride of 2015
By Bill Pivetz
Jul 3, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher
Julio Teheran(49) throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies in the sixth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Starting pitching is the most finicky position in fantasy baseball. There could be a pitcher drafted in the 20th round that pitches better than one drafted in the first three rounds. No one can predict 100 percent what is going to happen throughout a season, but that is the best part about playing fantasy sports. One player that fits the unpredictability of fantasy baseball is Atlanta Braves pitcher Julio Teheran.
Teheran lists as the Braves No. 1 pitcher on the depth chart. However, he isn’t pitching like one this season. He has a 4.60 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a 78:36 K:BB ratio in 17 starts. He finished with a 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 33 starts last season. So, what changed?
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In ESPN.com fantasy leagues, Teheran was drafted in the seventh round (68.6 ADP) as the 18th starting pitcher taken. He was drafted ahead of top pitchers Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Chris Archer and Dallas Keuchel among others.
Teheran has given up four or more earned runs in seven of his 17 starts, including three six-run and one eight-run outings. While some of those starts were against good offenses, he isn’t taking advantage of the favorable matchups. He has a 4.58 FIP, which means he is allowing a lot of home runs and not striking out enough batters.
Another factor against Teheran is the high pitch counts. He has not pitched a full eight innings at all this season. At this point last year, he pitched two complete game shutouts.
Teheran’s numbers were helped in recent weeks because of the matchup. He faced the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets in two of his last three games. However, he did need 110 pitches to make it seven innings against the Phillies.
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There is a bright side in owning Teheran. He has pitched great in Atlanta. He has a 2.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home compared to a 7.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP on the road. So, unless he is at home and facing a poor offense, Teheran is not worth starting.
Some fantasy owners have bailed on Teheran, dropped in 2.4 percent of leagues over the last week. His ownership is still at 82.6 percent, but that isn’t where a seventh-round pick should be. There have been no signs that Teheran is hurt, so the decline is a bit of a shock.
If you own Teheran, his trade value isn’t where you would like it to be. He ranks 221 on ESPN’s Player Rater, one spot ahead of the returning Andrew Heaney. At this point, you have no choice but to keep him and ride the roller coaster that his Julio Teheran’s 2015 season.