The Robinson Cano Conundrum

Jun 14, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman

(22) looks on between plays during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

They say that money cannot buy happiness, and we often hear this when it applies to someone who is wealthy who is either doing something wrong or failing to live to up to expectations. We use this old adage to rationalize what may be causing problems in someone’s life, and whether we believe in it or not, I am not rich so I wouldn’t know even  though I would love to try to empathize, it may be actually applicable to some people.

Now in terms of fantasy baseball, readers are probably wondering what in the hell is this guy talking about but this is where I bring it all full circle. If I told you to name some certainties going into the 2015 season, most of us would have probably said that Robinson Cano will show up and hit for his usual .300+ and drive in 80 like he does every year.

Thus in drafts we often see Cano going in the top 5 rounds as his consistency and bankability make him a solid option. If we also add the addition of Nelson Cruz and an improved Mariners lineup, everything pointed to Cano having an even better season than he usually produces.

All of us that even maybe minutely watch baseball know, that Cano is undoubtedly one of the best and smoothest players in the game. He makes everything seem so easy that we begin to question his effort even though he is just doing his thing and making it seem as though he is in his backyard. That’s the Cano we all love and expect, that was the pre-2015 Cano. The 2015 edition though.  has left fantasy owners of Cano in a dilemma.

No one envisions one of their early round picks to completely flounder because we often have to make sure that those early picks are the glue to our teams. Cano would have been the last person I guessed to come of the gates and absolutely bomb the way he has so far. I mean if we look at his slash line (.243/2 HR/22 RBI/.617 OPS), it seems like something a bench utility guy would post while playing sparingly.

There are two lines of thinking when it comes to what to do with Cano for the rest of the season. First, I will speak to the Cano owners who have patiently waited and held on to Cano so far. I like to use sabermetrics as much as anyone, but I also admit that some fantasy sites like to stat you to death with ratios and things that we maybe not even comprehend fully. But in Cano’s case there are some glaring sabermetric splits that stand out.

Early on in his career Cano was an aggressive hitter who attacked pitches, even to a fault, no matter where they were located. As he got older and moved up the lineup in New York he began to take his walks and have a better handle on the strike zone in order for him to stop getting himself out. This brings me to 2015.

Cano’s current Contact percentage sits at a career low 80.9%, compared to 85.9% last season. With a .243 AVG it is probably obvious that it would be lower but there is also the fact that his, 1stS (first pitch swinging %) is a career low 26.1% and S/Str (Swinging strikes missed) is a career high at 14.4%.

While this all may seem confusing, it all points to a guy that for some reason has changed his approach at the plate. Cano now lacks the aggressive approach he had the plate. He is simply falling behind in too many counts and in every at bat he is now on the defensive. Cano just seems out of synch at the plate. He is continually chasing breaking pitches and even when he has strikes to hit he is either taking them or just plainly missing them.

For Cano owners, I think it is clear what needs to happen. Cano has get out of whatever funk he is in and get back to what made him great. He has to become more aggressive at the plate and become the hard-hitting force he showed in New York and even last season.

In my opinion his possible unhappiness is not what is plaguing Cano, it seems as though if he made the simple alteration of approach at the plate he would start to produce again, thus making him a little more chipper in Seattle.

After all those negative stats, there is some silver lining in his peripherals. Cano’s LD% is actually the highest it has ever been, and while it is still relatively early in the season it points to that Cano is still squaring up the baseball when he makes contact.

There is also the fact that Cano currently has a career low BAbip, at .286 which points to that he has just been unlucky as well since the league AVG is around .300, and Cano has surpassed that every year since 2008.

Cano has the most doubles in June as well, hopefully signaling that a power uptick will come soon. Cano will never approach the 25+ potential he had in New York, that was a given when he left, but he is better power option that the 2 HR he currently has.

After all this analysis, we can circle back to the two lines of thinking in terms of rostering Cano. If you have picked him and stuck with him you can stay the course and hope that Cano is beginning to turn it around. Or you can try to trade him and hopefully use his name value alone to possibly get a mid-level piece in return and just cut ties.

For you owners that maybe thinking about making a move for Cano, do not low ball Cano owners as they have highly invested in Cano. But, at the same time remind them that Cano may not turn it around enough to warrant being their everyday 2B and in the scope of things has become a weekly detriment.

I would first examine the opposing owner’s roster and see where they could use an immediate upgrade. Do not offer a high value piece banking for a rebound, but take into account the risk/reward that Cano could bring you.

Cano was given 200+ million reasons why he should feel happy in Seattle, I know money is not everything but I refuse to identify that as why he is struggling so far. The beauty of it all is that Cano can turn it around himself, and that will truly define whether he becomes the biggest hero or zero from this year’s draft.