Projections I Got Wrong
By Bill Pivetz
Apr 28, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) hits a home run during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Earlier, I posted my pre-season projections that I got right. Well, it’s time to look at the flip side. I made a lot of projections before Opening Day, most of which I got wrong. It’s hard to have 100-percent accuracy, let alone 50 percent when you have no idea how things will play out throughout the season. Here, I’m going to look at the three biggest projections I got wrong in the preseason.
One of my first articles was about Joey Votto and how big of a bust he was going to be this season. I talked about his injury history and decline in power production. I said he won’t crack more than 16 home runs, 60 RBI and a .280 average. As of now, he has hit seven home runs and 16 RBI with a .312 batting average. I don’t care what he does for the rest of the season, this projection blew up in my face.
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My next two missed projections are about my sleeper picks in Yan Gomes and Shin-Soo Choo.
Gomes had a great 2014 season, finishing with 135 hits, 21 home runs, 74 RBI, .279 average and .313 on-base percentage. Unfortunately, injuries got in the way as he’s only played five games. In those five games, he has just three hits in 20 at bats. Hopefully for his fantasy owners, Gomes can return to his 2014 self because we all know the Cleveland Indians lineup can use him. But, as of right now, he’s a big bust for 2015.
As far as Choo is concern, this Texas Rangers lineup isn’t helping him much. Despite everyone being healthy, he continues to struggle. In his first season with the Rangers, Choo had 13 home runs, 40 RBI and .242/.340/.374 line. This season, he has five hits in 52 at bats, one home run, five RBI and a 0.096 batting average. You read that right, less than .100 average. I’m not sure what the problem is with Choo. Maybe he is hurt, maybe it’s the park. Whatever it is, it’s not helping fantasy owners. I thought with Prince Fielder back and Adrian Beltre doing Adrian Beltre things, he would be a top-25 outfielder. That definitely is not the case.
Again, they can’t all be winners. Hopefully, you drafted based on your own projections and not what myself or any other fantasy baseball analyst said. It’s okay to take what we say into consideration, because it’s all speculation. Luckily, it’s only the first month into the season, so things can still turn around.