Projections I Got Right
By Bill Pivetz
Apr 29, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) hits an RBI single during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Everyone thinks they can predict what a player is going to do this season. Player A will hit 20 home runs and 85 RBI. Player B will have a 2.50 ERA and win 18 games. It’s difficult to be right when making projections. However, there are some rare cases in which you are right. Weeks before the season began, I made some bold and no-so-bold projections on a lot of players. With one month down, I look back on those correct projections.
One of my projections was to avoid all New York Yankees pitchers. Their rotation had a lot of question marks around the health of the staff. Here are the team’s pitching stats as of April 30.
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C.C. Sabathia: 0-4, 5.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 22 strikeouts
Michael Pineda: 3-0, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 32 strikeouts
Masahiro Tanaka: 2-1, 3.22 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 24 strikeouts
Nathan Eovaldi: 1-0, 4.15 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 20 strikeouts
Adam Warren: 1-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 12 strikeouts
The only good pitcher has ben Pineda, but his ERA is nowhere you would like it to be. Tanaka is hurt, Sabathia is getting hit and the other two can’t strike anyone out. If you avoided all of these pitchers, your fantasy team benefits from it.
Another projection of mine was about St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong. I projected he would hit 12 home runs and 53 RBI with 22 SB and a .261 average. Right now, he has one home run, seven RBI, two stolen bases and a .300 batting average. While he hasn’t shown much power, he is getting on base scoring runs. The power will come eventually.
My final projection I, so far, got right was about Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. In February, I projected that he would hit 21 home runs and 80 RBI with a.281 average. He’s on pace to surpass those numbers. He would end with 22 home runs and 95 RBI if he were to play 140 games. Arenado has a .297 batting average right now. As long as he stays healthy, he is a top-10, possibly top-five, third baseman.