2015 Outfield Tiers
By Brad Kelly
September 20, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder
Mike Trout(27) reacts after he hits a triple in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A.Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Positional tiers allow drafters to not only get a better bearing on the position, but also can be utilized as a way to judge if you can either wait or have to pounce on a player you want.
*Hunter Pence is down with a broken forearm. It seems as though he will miss maybe a month or so, clearly he is still draftable, but I chose to leave him off this list. I think as of right now he falls more in that OF3 or 4 status.
Tier 1- Let’s go Fishing
Mike Trout– He is the best baseball player on the plant. Fantasy owners should be salivating at the fact that he pledges to steal more bases.
Tier 2- 1st Rounders
Andrew McCutchen– It is quite unfortunate that Cutch has to happen to be playing at the same time Trout has been in the league because Cutch would hands down be deemed the best player in baseball. If there ever was a guy to challenge Trout for the best all category fantasy player in baseball, it is McCutchen.
Giancarlo Stanton– I have always loved watching Mike, oh sorry, Giancarlo hit because when he connects they are some of the most majestic shots you will ever see. If not for a Fiers fastball to the head, he would have reached the 40+ HR mark. As the spring as gone on, he seems fine in the box, so look to take Stanton within the top three.
Carlos Gomez– Even after basically three 20/20 seasons, there stills seems to be some hesitancy with owners taking Gomez. He seems to fall to the latter half of the first round, but I would implore you to not let that happen. He is an absolute stud, the .280/25/75/35 line is well worth considering within the first handful of picks in the draft.
Adam Jones– Consistency and durability has defined Jones’s career with Baltimore. He has played no less than 149 games in five years and his average, .280/27/90/10 line, still holds value even though he has seen his steal chances lessen over the last few years. He is definitely one of the safest picks in the first round, so if you do not want to blow your first pick, Jones is your guy.
Tier 3 – Solid #1 OFs
Jose Bautista– The power is prestigious and whenever he is on the field you know that you have the power edge. The only thing that prevents Joey Bats from being a 1st rounder, is that he seems to always be plagued by injuries. Last season he played a career high in games, and we saw what he is capable of. Do not expect a .280 AVG again, but 30+ HR’s are nearly a lock.
Michael Brantley– Brantley always found himself as being a better real life baseball player, rather than fantasy. Last year though, he finally put it all together to post a true breakout season. Many owners will be scared off by this and not pay for a career year, do not share that sentiment as there is nothing fluky about Brantley’s peripheral stats. He falls into that same Jones mold as his floor is amongst the highest at the position.
Justin Upton– I am a big fan of Upton as he has for the most part stayed pretty consistent throughout his fantasy career. The 20/20 seasons are probably no longer in play, but he provides solid AVG and premier power. Do not be afraid of the move to Petco either, as Upton proved in Atlanta, his power translates anywhere he goes.
Jacoby Ellsbury– I know many of you see his minor oblique injury as all the reassurance you need to cross Ellsbury right off your list. Oblique type of injuries can be problematic and I understand that, but the Yankees know to treat his situation very carefully. Ellsbury says he will be ready and I believe that his injury was minor, he will also finally be back atop the order which should get him back to stealing 40+ bags, the value will come as he will probably be passed over.
Ryan Braun– All I know is that he should be thankful that A-Rod is in the league, but I digress, as this is strictly about fantasy value. Braun was severely limited by a thumb injury that caused him to have a career worst year. He had surgery to alleviate the nerve pain and has shown some signs of life lately in spring training. I think this year proves to be a pivotal year for Braun, to show everyone that his talent is legit. Look at him as a buy low candidate and should be able to lead your fantasy OF.
Yasiel Puig– Where did the power go? I think all fantasy owners thought that HR numbers would be the last category missing from his stat line, but last season it was. He showed an improved batting eye at the plate last season, and the power outage was more as a result in an increase of his GB%. I look for him to rebound in a solid way and he could flirt with 1st round status if he can get his HR total into the 20+ range.
Tier 4 – Better Suited #2’s
Bryce Harper– When you look up the word, fantasy frustration, a picture of Harper should appear. Every season fantasy owners put stock in Harper, hoping that this will be the season where we see his true potential. But nagging injuries always seem to get in the way as Harper’s playing style leaves him prone to getting hurt. He can certainly be a solid #1 OF, but I fell as though if you surround him with a safer top tier OF, it serves as great insurance for owning Harper.
Matt Kemp-For those fantasy owners that stayed patient with Kemp, you reaped the rewards of the 2nd half monster stats he produced. He really looked like he was back in that MVP form he had just a few years ago. Will he keep that rate? No, but he should be solid for your team and a .280/25/90/10 line is well worth your #2 OF spot.
Carlos Gonzalez– So much talent, so many DL stints. That is the conundrum with CarGo because he is a 1st rounder when he is on the field, but what can we expect from him? I am actually optimistic on Gonzalez going into 2015, his thumb injury was in large part due to a tumor, and he seems to be moving great this spring after knee surgery. He is well worth the gamble as your #2, as a 20/20 season is always on the table. It is up to you to decide if you want to take the plunge.
Starling Marte– I am with the contingent of baseball people who believe that the Pirate have the best OF in baseball. Marte is an instrumental part of this trio, and I think he is flirting with a breakout season. His floor is incredibly solid (.280/10/50/35),that has value in its own right. He has an enticing blend of speed and decent power that gives you that vital balance in your OF. Draft confidently.
Corey Dickerson– Oh the perks of playing at Coors Field. Dickerson absolutely smashed the ball in his home games last season (.363/15/53) with tier one type of stats, but unfortunately for the Rockies, they have to play there other 81 games somewhere else and his line (.252/9/23) shows his Jekyll and Hyde nature. I know some people see his stats as a fluke because of this, but keep in mind he still is a Rockie and his power is legit, so draft him confidently but know that he will be streaky.
George Springer– A vital part of the young stud Astros movement is Springer. His talent is through the roof and he should be a guy very much on your radar. In only 78 games last year, he hit 20 bombs and gave us a little taste of the premier power he has. The AVG will not be pretty, but there is a real chance at a 25/20 season, and having that as your #2 OF is like stealing.
Billy Hamilton– The only question is, can he steal first? His speed is mind boggling, but that does not matter if you are walking back to the dugout with your bat in your hand. I like the advantage Hamilton immediately gives you when you select him, thus him being in this tier. Just imagine if he could just walk a little more or hit more line drives. I think the best course of action, is to pair him with a stud in the first round, thus you offset the low AVG and OBP, that way you can get full value out of the speed advantage he provides.
Nelson Cruz– Cruz was one of the latter signs last season, and he parlayed that one year deal into a hefty contract in Seattle. Like Cano, he did himself nor fantasy owners any favors moving to Safeco, and I think we all know that 40 HR’s is not sustainable. His floor is pretty nice though, he can provide decent AVG and upper tier power numbers, and it will really just come down to where owners think he falls. Is he the 140+ games played and 30+ HR guy, or the oft injured .260 hitter that he was? I side more with the former.
Tier 5- Lower End #2’s
Jason Heyward– It seems as though Heyward should be putting up better fantasy stats than he does. He is extremely talented, yet he seems to always underwhelm fantasy owners. I like the move to St.Louis, as it be a fresh start for him to rebound. He does get nicked up a lot as has a propensity to hit way too many groundballs, but he is well worth the gamble. The upside is 25/20 and the floor is about 15/20 with a solid AVG.
Jay Bruce– I want to pretend that Bruce’s 2014 season never happened. The guy hit 25+ HR’s for 4 straight seasons going into 2014 and he was someone I targeted as “safe”. Unfortunately, baseball laughs at the concept of safe, and Bruce had a terrible season. He accredits this to a knee injury that he fought all year, amazingly he stole 12 bases last year which I have no explanation for. Fantasy owners need know that this guy just did not forget how to hit though. He is as solid power wise as they come, so target him as a great bounce back candidate.
Yoenis Cespedes– He is another guy that I feel should be mashing at least 25 HR’s every season. Yet, he does not due to injuries and his swing at everything approach. I really wise he stayed in Boston, but he still holds value in Detroit amongst one of the better lineups in baseball. Look for the usual .260/25/85/10 line.
Matt Holliday– Mr. Consistency thankfully turned his season around in the second half of last season, as many owners had to suffer from an extreme 1st half power outage. He did get back to the 20 HR benchmark, so I feel as though he should be able to hit that again. I do not think though that he will get back to perennial near .300 seasons. But, a .275/25/90 line is solid for a #2.
Christian Yelich– I am very bullish on Yelich this season as I think a breakthrough performance is on the horizon. I think he will eventually be a 20/20 guy as he is only 23 and still has room to improve some areas. He does struggle against lefties and his GB% is preventing him from a power surge, but I feel good investing in Yelich, especially as he is slotted to hit in front of Stanton. The steals should be there and the AVG will be solid, the bonus will be if he can get the HR’s up as well.
Jorge Soler– Soler will probably be one of the guys that I make it a point to reach for because I believe in his talent. All we hear about is Baez and Bryant, but I hold that Soler is the most major league ready and prepared for a great season. He has done nothing but hit in the minors and has showed great signs that he can improve his LD and FB rates. I think he smashes close to 25 HR’s, 80 RBI’s, and posts around a .260 AVG. He is still being slept on, so astute fantasy owners should sweep him up and reap the rewards before he is a household name.
Tier 6 – Suitable #3’s
Kole Calhoun– Hitting atop the Angels lineup has done Calhoun a great favor in padding his counting stats, which has propelled him into being a mid-round selection, instead of a late round flier. The runs should definitely be there, and I think he will get to the 20 HR mark. The only thing he lacks is speed numbers and immense RBI numbers while hitting leadoff. He does fill just about every category, so as a #3 that is definitely something you target.
Mookie Betts– The hype machine has been spinning Betts name out all spring and by now he is no longer a “sleeper” so to say. He has absolutely hit everything this spring and has shown Boston that he belongs starting in CF. I still wish that the OF situation was not as muddy with Castillo just returning, but I feel as though Betts is just too good to be a bench player. He has a nice blend of speed and power, so a 15/15 season is definitely in play. He also boasts one of the better batting eyes on the team, so the AVG and OBP should be rock solid as well.
Marcell Ozuna– Like Soler and Yelich, Ozuna has all the makings as a dark horse OF pick that catapults themselves into a tier or two higher. He has some legit pure power and that showed even in the Grand Canyon that is Marlins Park. He does strike out a ton, but I do not see him striking out nearly 27% of the time again, because it is basically pretty tough to be that bad again. So even if that drops let say into the 24-25% range, he should be able to get to 30 HR’s and that value is hard to pass up.
J.D. Martinez– Martinez had always been a pretty solid player for Houston, so I have to admit I was not exactly shocked that he had a great season. The AVG was a surprise no doubt, but J.D. had shown some power promise for the Astros. This reassures me that last season was not just a fluke, especially if you hear him talk about how he completely changed his approach to go to all fields and show off his opposite field power. Do not expect a repeat in AVG, but there is no reason why J.D. should not hit 20 HR and 70 RBI’s.
Ben Revere– The speed is coming, the speed is coming. Ok I know that was cheesy, but Revere’s value is strictly in his legs. I like to deem Revere as the Hamilton fallback plan, Revere will not has as many steals, but it should be rather close. But unlike Hamilton, Revere can match his speed with a great AVG. So if you miss out on Hamilton and are scrambling to find speed do not overlook Revere. Having him as a #3 OF may seem aggressive, but keep in mind that once Hamilton goes everyone else in the room will scan their sheets and look for another speed option, therefore beat them to the punch and target Revere to solidify your team.
Brandon Moss– I am quite high on Moss and his move to Cleveland. Moss was a man possessed the first half of the season as he had 21 HR at the break. But, his power completely diminished as he suffered a hip injury and he saw his number plummets. He had the hip injury cleared up in the offseason, and he has been playing in spring games. He has legit 30+ HR potential, and getting out of Oakland largely helps his power potential. He will also be in a better lineup, so the counting stats should stay solid as well.
Ryan Zimmerman– One of the most consistent 20 HR and .280 hitters in baseball will be trying to get back to those levels after a career worst season. With his transition to 1B, the hope is that he will remain healthy enough to remain in the lineup and produce the stats we have all come to expect from Zimmerman. He should get back to those numbers as he will not have to fight the mental and physical battle that 3B has given him trouble over the last few years.
Charlie Blackmon– Last season proved to be the year of the breakout players, and Blackmon is a prime example. He posted an awesome .288/19/72/28 line, and really carried fantasy teams early in the season. He is another guy that struggles away from Colorado so keep that in mind when assessing his value. He did a lot of damage early in the season, and slowed as the season went on, but he still did enough to produce. I think last season was a career year so do not pay strictly for that, expect a .280/15/65/20 line, thus adding balance to your squad.
Mark Trumbo– Last season, a foot injury sapped his power and eventually sidelined him for most of the season. He did remind us of his potential in September as he slugged 6 HR to finish of the season. The only reason I am not as bullish on Trumbo as some of the other power options is that his batted ball data shows that he tends to have lower line drive rates and higher pop up rates than most of the premier power options. Trumbo still has the potential to slug 30+ HR though, so he is someone to target to immediately give your team a legit power threat.
Gregory Polanco– Polanco was called up in June and showed that he was ready for the big leagues. His 2014 stat line really does not do Polanco justice, as he ran into some terrible BABIP luck after June and that decimated his AVG and steal opportunities. He is a tantalizing talent that has that power and speed blend that we all covet, and he is not afraid to take his walks. He should flirt with a 15/20 season and hopefully through some adjustments at the plate he can add the bonus of a solid AVG. He is well worth a slot in your OF.
Tier 7 – Filler #4’s
Josh Harrison– Man, who saw that coming? Harrison took full advantage of his playing time last season and posted a career year. He hit .347/13/18, providing tremendous in season value. Fantasy owners will have to gauge what they believe that Harrison can do as an encore. The AVG will certainly come down, largely due to an inflated .353 BABIP. However, the speed should remain and the power could hover around 10-15. He has multi-positional eligibility helping his value.
Wil Myers– There were a lot of expectations for Myers last season as he was primed to be the power option behind Longoria. Well, he failed to live up to hype, and he now finds himself in San Diego. Myers seems primed to be one of those post-hype sleepers that tend to be overlooked after they fail to meet projections. A wrist injury sapped his power and that showed through his stats. I expect him to hit about .260 or so, but I do believe he hits 20 HR’s and supplies a decent RBI total in the improved Padres lineup.
Leonys Martin– Like Revere, Martin will be another fallback speed option for fantasy owners. I think owners should value him for more than that. He has had back to back 30+ steal seasons and he has posted solid AVG’s the last two seasons. Hitting atop the Rangers lineup this season should help him sustain those counting stats and I think he will steal 40 bags this season. He also provides a little pop too that could sneak into the teens. Target him aggressively as he is being overlooked right now, he truly is a multi-category contributor.
Alex Gordon– I like guys that stabilize your fantasy teams. Gordon is the prime example of this. He does not do anything great fantasy wise, but that is also his value. His reliable production can mask holes or help soften the blow that down weeks can have on your fantasy team. So when it comes to Gordon, look past the fact that there is nothing sexy about him, just take your .270/20/75/10 to the bank.
Adam Eaton– Eaton was a popular sleeper going into 2014, as he was primed to finally show off his speed potential. Injuries slowed him last season, so while he did post a .300 AVG, he was only able to swipe 15 bags. Atop an improved White Sox lineup, I fully expect his counting stats to remain solid, so if he can stay healthy he should get to 25+ steals with a solid AVG.
A.J. Pollock– Pollock and Eaton are in somewhat similar positions. They both have speed to burn and should be atop decent lineups. Pollock does have more pop and may have more potential than Eaton. He should hit about 15 HR and steal about 25 bases, so he may be more of a balanced version. I like him as a nice mid outfielder as he has the upside to jump a tier and the floor to provide decent value.
Melky Cabrera– The Melkman has once again found himself in another favorable situation heading into 2015. He is a stat filler outside of steals, which allows you some stability in your outfield. He did see a nice power surge in Toronto, and that should not change in Chicago. He is also hitting in the prime no. 2 spot ahead of Abreu, so he should see plenty to hit. I think Melky hits .290/18/70 and supplies nice run totals. He is a nice #4 option.
Khris Davis– Davis quietly hit 22 HR’s last season and should be once again a nice late power source. He did struggle the 2nd half of the last season and he saw his playing time cut. He should rebound though and I think with a better eye at the plate he should creep into the 25+ HR status. He should once again be a part of the middle of the lineup, so the potential is there for him to hit for .260/25/70, proving to be a nice power fill.
Michael Cuddyer– This is a conservative ranking of Cuddyer, and it is largely due to him consistently begin banged up. He is 36 and whenever he is on the field he has produced. The move from Colorado does not help his value, but he should be solid apart of an improved Mets lineup. If he can play around 130 games, then he should put up close to a .280/20/75 line. There is value here, but limited upside, but for a #4 OF he would do a solid job.
Tier 8 – Team Needs (Power, Speed, or Balance)
*Rather than write a snippet for each one of these players, I thought it would be useful to owners if they could see some guys that are late round picks that can especially fill some holes on your team. These are guys that you target after you diagnose what your team may be missing.
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