2015 Second Base Tiers
By Brad Kelly
Mar 15, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman
Robinson Cano(22) bats against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Positional tiers allow drafters to not only get a better bearing on the position, but also can be utilized as a way to judge if you can either wait or have to pounce on a player you want.
Tier 1 – Elite Targets
Anthony Rendon– One of the best surprises of last year’s draft was the breakout performance from Rendon. Rendon was a high touted prospect, but in 2014 he took his stock to whole other level putting up stats that have him in consideration as the top fantasy player at two positions (2B, 3B).
Rendon should find himself in the middle of a solid lineup and should produce stats that give him ample value. His SB’s might come down a bit, but if they stay around 10, it is just a bonus. He deserves early 2nd round consideration.
Robinson Cano– We all knew that a power drop was coming as soon as Cano chose to take his talents to Safeco. His HR total was nearly cut in half, he hit too many ground balls, and he saw most of his other counting stats drop largely due to a weaker supporting staff. So why do I still have him ranked this high?
Consistency, consistency, and some more consistency. Cano is a true ironman playing no less than 155 since 2006! His numbers will not get back to the vintage Yankee days, but Cano has the highest floor among fantasy players. The AVG will always be there, the power should creep back into the 20 HR territory, and his stats should be boosted by the addition of Cruz. Take him in the 2nd round, and do not second guess yourself.
Jose Altuve– One of the most fun and easiest guys to root for is the 5’6″ hitting machine, Jose Altuve. He had an unbelievable year and proved that great hitters come in all shapes and sizes.
The common knock on Altuve this season is that there is no way he can repeat last year’s stats. Well as all fantasy owners should know, that is pretty much a given. Having 225 hits, a .341 AVG, and nearly 60 steals is pretty much as good as it gets. But Altuve does not have to repeat those numbers in order to justify his 2nd round appeal.
The Astros lineup is vastly improved, so Altuve’s counting stats will be there, his AVG will come down some, but do not expect a drop below .300. The steals should manifest themselves as Altuve has a knack for getting on base. Draft him in the 2nd and smile to the bank.
Tier 2 – Mid-Round Targets
Jason Kipnis– Hold on, calm down fantasy owners, I know for some that even the sight of this guy’s name incites pure outrage, but just let explain my optimistic ranking.
Going into 2014 Kipnis’s stock was no higher and most fantasy owners found themselves investing a high draft pick. Unbeknownst to fantasy owners though, Kipnis had altered his offseason training to include a focus on weight lifting and getting stronger. That proved to be Kiss of Death as Kipnis hurt his oblique early in the season and never recovered to the Kipnis we valued.
For all those owners who invested last year, why not try and get your money back from pouncing on Kipnis this year while his stock is so low? He still stole 22 bases, so the speed has not gone anywhere and he has the potential to go 25/20 this season. It is hard to pass that up in the mid rounds, no matter how much you will hate doing it.
Brian Dozier– If I were to ask you, which player came only behind Trout in Runs scored last season, would you be able to answer it? I would have never even guessed that Dozier came in second in runs scored and actually scored 112 runs last year!
Dozier’s value did not solely come from just runs scored, he also posted a 112/23/71/21/.242 line and that is absolutely monster coming from your 2B. But as enticing that line is, I caution owners to not overpay for a repeat season. At the break, Dozier had posted 18 HR/16 SB, but after the break, he only mustered 5HR/5SB really killing all the momentum he had in the first half of fantasy season. Owners should never pay for career years, but Dozier should have a solid year, just expect more of something along his 2013 line (72/18/66/14/.244).
Ian Kinsler– Kinsler has been a mainstay amongst the top five 2B for a while now, and he once again gave fantasy owners another solid 2014 season. He is in a unique position where he is vastly helped by hitting leadoff for one of the better lineups in baseball.
At the top of the order, Kinsler gets a major boost in his counting stats, and that helps his value because he longer is the 30/30 threat that he once offered. Kinsler will post solid run and RBI numbers and he has settled into producing about a 15HR/15SB stat line. The value is still there in the mid rounds, so feel safe investing in Kinsler.
Dustin Pedroia– Falling under the same umbrella as Kipnis, Pedroia’s value has been decimated by injuries. He has battled thumb and wrist problems over the last two seasons, and he is a far cry from the Laser Show we once loved in fantasy.
He serves as a great bounce back candidate, as he had surgery to repair the damage and the ability to have a pretty normal offseason. He will not get back to the 20/20 days, but he should provide something like his 2012 season (.290/15/75/20). He still warrants mid round consideration.
Tier 3- Specialty Needs
Dee Gordon– The only question was could he steal 1st base. Gordon finally hit enough to show off the blazing speed that has been his calling card throughout his career. The only thing fantasy owners will have to decide is whether Gordon can maintain getting on base at a sufficient clip and when too take him based off that.
I think that a .289 AVG may be a mirage, but it really comes down to Gordon’s willingness to walk and not just slap the ball in play. After the break last year, Gordon only took 4 walks, so I have a little hesitancy in targeting him aggressively in the draft. The difference between a .300 and .350 OBP can dictate the steal totals that gives Gordon his value. I would target him in the mid rounds, just keep in mind the underlying risk.
Kolten Wong– One of everyone’s breakout performers this season will find himself probably getting drafted a little higher than you would expect. The question will be: are you the guy willing to reach for him?
I know I am willing to because a 20/20 season is on the horizon. Wong struggled early in the season as he fought for playing time and adjusting to the majors. But as soon as July came, Wong started to show his potential. From July to the end of the season, he managed a .260/11/26/11 line. If we put that into context, all Wong would have to done was average 3HR/3SB for the first three months of the season, and we are looking at a 20/20 season. The breakout is coming, so target him aggressively.
Neil Walker– He has quietly become one of the prime power options at the 2B position over the last two years. He hit 16 in 2013 and followed that up with 23 in 2014. He is a great target for teams looking for pop in the middle of drafts.
I like the fact that Walker gives you power numbers at a normally power starved position, so there is value in that alone. It is also valuable that Walker spent most of his time in the clean-up spot on the Pirates, so with Harrison/Polanco/McCuthcen in front of him, the RBI chances will be aplenty. He is a perfect mid round target.
Howie Kendrick– Keep in mind this is the specialty tier, and Kendrick’s specialty is safety. Howie is a guy that always gets overlooked because he does not blow you away in any specific category. Yet, he never kills you and often will win you match-ups.
Kendrick has not hit lower than .285 since 2010, he has stolen more than 10 bases 6 out the last 7 seasons, and knocked in more than 60 RBI in 5 out the last 6 seasons. What I am trying to get at here is that if you choose to wait on the 2B spot, then target Kendrick as he can mask holes on your fantasy team.
Tier 4 – MI Options
Ben Zobrist– Zobrist has been a fun guy to own in fantasy as he has been the ultimate fantasy Swiss army knife. The multi-positional eligibility often masks that the fact that Zobrist has to get back to his 20 HR ways in order for fantasy owners to aggressively target him. In the last two seasons, Ben Zobrist has posted an average line of .273/11/61/10.
There does not seem to be any upside here, and I often find myself believing that a line like that can be replaced during the season. Ben Zobrist was slowed last year due to a thumb injury, so he maybe can rebound and reassure fantasy owners that he is worth the price tag.
Javier Baez– All fantasy owners are pulling for Baez to win the 2B job this spring because we can then slot him at our SS spot. When it comes to Baez it is simple, he has to cut down on his Sheffield-esque swing and limit his K’s. The power is legit and the talent is real, but he does us no good in AAA. If Baez can secure the spot by the time of your draft, target him aggressively as he can potentially provide plenty of pop that would suffice at your SS or MI spots.
Daniel Murphy– Murphy has always been a guy that does not wow you with his stat-line, but he does just enough to help you across the board. He will provide great AVG and solid counting stats, which makes him a perfect MI candidate.
Martin Prado-Prado is another one of those fantasy players that I label as a stabilizer. He will always provide a solid AVG and chip in double digit HR’s. He can be had in the very last rounds in drafts, but the value he brings allows you to cover up some of the holes that may have manifested within your team.
Jedd Gyorko– You could probably argue that Gyorko has the most power potential in the entire 2B class. In 2013, he hit 23 HR and really put himself on the map as a nice power option for your fantasy team. Injuries killed him last year, so fantasy owners need to look at last season as a lost year. The AVG will not be there, but in an improved lineup he should hit 20+ HR and have a lot of RBI opportunities.
Chase Utley– Utley had a long stretch where he was amongst the top players in fantasy baseball and would often find himself in the first round discussion. Unfortunately, age and injuries, have gotten the best of Utley. He no longer resembles his vintage self, and it is a blessing if he make it through an entire season, but he still can chip in a decent AVG with the possibility of notching a 15HR/15SB season.
Brandon Phillips– One of my favorite stats going into 2014 was that Phillips hit exactly 18 HR the prior 4 seasons. Many fantasy owners thought they could take that to the bank in 2014, but Phillips failed to deliver as injuries slowed him during the season. He does not resemble the 20/20 threat he once was and his batted ball data pointed to regression. But, for a MI option, he is not too bad of a gamble with the hope that he can post a 15/10 stat line.
Rougned Odor– At 20 years old, Odor tends to get overlooked in the discussion of the up and coming talents in baseball. His (39/9/48/4/.249) stat line does not blow you away, but there is definitely upside with taking Odor. He has decent pop for a 2B and if he can become more efficient on the base paths (7 CS), we could have a sneaky breakout on our hands. He is one of those great MI options that can be had late and turn into a great value. He should certainly flirt with a 15/15 season
Arismendy Alcantara– He often gets overlooked by all the high profile Cubs’ prospects, but Alcantara could be just as important to their success this season. He can play anywhere and could serve as the opening day 2B or 3B. He has 15/15 talent, and I would not be surprised if he surpasses that, especially steals wise. For owners looking for a cheap high upside MI, Alcantara is your man.
Scooter Gennett– With Rickie Weeks now officially out of the picture, the 2B duties are all on Scooter. Scooter has always handled righties well (.307 against RHP), but his biggest blemish is that he just cannot handle lefties at all (39 AB’s and a .103 AVG against LHP). The Brewers did a considerable effort to shield Gennett from LHP, but this season he will be fully exposed to them. He has the upside of having a 15/10 season, but owners should be content with more of a .275/10/60/10 season.
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