2015 Third Base Tiers

Oct 6, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals third baseman

(6) bats in front of San Francisco Giants catcher

(28) during game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Positional tiers allow drafters to not only get a better bearing on the position, but also can be utilized as a way to judge if you can either wait or have to pounce on a player you want.

Tier 1 – Elite

Anthony Rendon– One of the best surprises of last year’s draft was the breakout performance from Rendon. Rendon was a high touted prospect, but in 2014 he took his stock to whole other level putting up stats that have him in consideration as the top fantasy player at two positions (2B, 3B).

Rendon should find himself in the middle of a solid lineup and should produce stats that give him ample value. His SB’s might come down a bit, but if they stay around 10, it is just a bonus. He deserves early 2^nd round consideration.

Josh Donaldson– Donaldson has really been one of the more remarkable stories in the MLB over the last few years. He went basically from a bench role, to now being one of the premier power options in baseball. His value has never been higher going into 2015.

He has hit over 20+ bombs, with 90+ RBI’s in each of the last seasons while being in an anemic A’s lineup and playing home games at the Grand Canyon known as Oakland. With his trade to Toronto and being a part of the best 3-4-5 combo in baseball, Donaldson has the potential to have a monster season. Target him aggressively in the 2^nd round.

Adrian Beltre– The man just keeps producing. Going into his age 35 season, there is no reason for this to stop either. Last season, his counting stats were killed by the Rangers injuries. He had no protection and often was pitched around, especially in the 2^nd half.

With the Rangers lineup back healthy going into the 2015 season, we should see his numbers get back to that 1^st round level. A .300/30/80 is an attainable and realistic stat line. I would also keep in mind, that he probably has the highest floor out of all fantasy 3B this season.

Tier 2 – Quality Options

Todd Frazier– Another breakout from the 2014 season was the Toddfather. Prior to the 2014 season, we knew Frazier as a decent power option with an AVG that was hard to predict. That all changed in 2014 as Frazier hit 29 HR, with 80 RBI’s and probably the most surprising, 20 steals.

Fantasy owners need to look at the steals as an aberration though as it is hard to see him repeating that. He had never even attempted more than 11 steals going into 2014, so Frazier took full advantage of defenses sleeping on him. But, the power is legit and the AVG should hover around .265. Frazier is a solid 3B going into 2015 and he is certainly someone to target in the middle rounds.

Nolan Arenado– Arenado has the best chance to, by this time next year, be in the talks amongst the top 3B in fantasy baseball. All the trends are pointing up for Arenado. His batted ball data is solid as his LD data points to an eventual power surge.

Playing half of his games in Coors helps, but it also hurts his value some (.303 Home/.269 Away). Those numbers will always be skewed somewhat, but I look for Arenado to close that gap and have a breakout season. His season was cut short last season due to injury as he was on pace to post career highs across the board. Look for him to get his HR total over 20 and if Cargo or Tulo could stay healthy, the RBI’s should come as well. He is a guy that owners should target no matter what and make sure you find a place for him on your team.

Carlos Santana– One of the most frustrating fantasy seasons last season was undoubtedly posted by Santana. Through the first two months of the season Santana could not even hit his weight and only had 6 HR’s. For a guy with great power and batting eye, Santana should never see dips like these.

For those owners you kept him through the struggles, you were pleasantly rewarded with 21 HR’s over the course of the rest of the season. Target him your drafts, especially in leagues that award OBP. Just hold steady if Santana comes out and struggles in the beginning of the season.

Kyle Seager– This guy just does not get the love he deserves. Over the last three seasons, Seager has averaged a .262/22.3/83.6 line. That in itself is great value for a 3B that you usually get later than you should in drafts as he flies under the radar.

That should change this year as he is coming off a career year and surrounded by a better lineup. The AVG should hover around .265 and the HR’s should remain in the 20’s. I think Seager is one of the few options that I make it a point to draft him because his consistency is invaluable.

Evan Longoria– A long mainstay in the first rounds of fantasy baseball, Longoria has fallen through the ranks. Last season was a career worst as he tied his career low in HR’s and AVG. The worst part of it all is that he actually played all 162 games.  He is not somebody that you should reach for in order to get. We all know what he is capable of, but it will be a real question of what value we place on that potential alone.

The Rays lineup is worse this season, and a return to 90 RBI’s is probably unrealistic. But, his floor is very high and this are the type of players that can be prime bounce back targets. Just do not set expectations high, but he can still provide ample value at the right draft price.

Matt Carpenter– I will concede that this may be an aggressive ranking of a guy that really only excels in two categories. However, Carpenter is what I like to call a fantasy stabilizer. He is not a guy that will carry you, but he masks many holes on your team. If you deem your team a power laden squad with suspect averages, Carpenter is the guy that offsets that average risk and allows you to construct a more balanced team.

As for the stats themselves, he will always sit around .300 and post solid R totals. He is also valuable in OBP leagues due to his propensity to take his walks. He will also again be a part of a solid lineup, so his counting stats should all remain stable. He is not the sexiest pick, but fantasy teams need all types of players to contend.

Tier 3 – Lingering Questions

Chris Davis– Astute fantasy owners knew that 53 HR’s and 138 RBI’s were not sustainable numbers in this age of baseball. But, we did not prepare ourselves for the rock bottom that Davis hit 2014. The suspension muddies the waters a little, but he has received his 2015 medical clearance to take an Adderall substitute, so that should be a moot point.

The power numbers were not actually that bad considering the power outage throughout baseball (26 HR/72 RBI). The .196 AVG was just a weekly killer that torpedoed any chance fantasy owners had at winning AVG. With the implementation of shifts and defensive measures, Davis will probably never see his average approach that .270 plateau again.

Fantasy owners need to be aware though that Davis suffered from an extremely unlucky .242 BABIP. That number has nowhere to go but up and Davis will solidify himself again as one of the more valuable assets in fantasy. If will be up to owners however, to determine how high they think the AVG will rebound. I hold that Davis will hit around .250 and also eclipse 30+ HR’s to provide plenty of value.

David Wright– Another season, another injury. This marks two seasons in a row where Wright has failed to provide ample value for where he has been drafted. Last season he put up career lows, and we are largely banking on his shoulder injury as the culprit.

With the Mets planning on contending this season, Wright will have to the integral part of the team’s offense as usual. The positive signs are that he is not too far removed from a near 20/20 season in 2013 and he rebounded from a similar rough year in 2009, with a huge 29 HR campaign in 2010.

Do not expect that type of production, but Wright should still have ample value at a largely reduced draft spot. Wright is one of the likeliest candidates to go 20/20 this season, so there is still some upside with the surrounding concerns.

Manny Machado– With two knee surgeries under his belt over the last two seasons, Machado surely is a question mark going into 2015. But, the breakout is surely to come, which is why fantasy owners are going to take the plunge.

Machado, when healthy, is a doubles machine and that tendency to hit for doubles usually develops into HR power. Machado is still remarkably young, 22, even with 2 seasons in the league, so there is some developmental hiccups to come. But a .280/20/80 season is on the horizon.

Ryan Zimmerman– One of the most consistent 20 HR and .280 hitters at the position will be trying to get back to those levels after a career low season. With his transition to 1B, the hope is that he will remain healthy enough to remain in the lineup and produce the stats we have all come to expect from Zimmerman.

Zimmerman should get back to those numbers as he will not have to fight the mental and physical battle that 3B has given him over the last few years. Fantasy owners should keep Zimmerman in mind as he certainly has the ability to get back to those 25+ HR numbers and once again be a solid piece of your fantasy team.

Pablo Sandoval– If Sandoval could always pretend to be hitting in the month of October, he would be the top 3B in fantasy baseball. For some reason, there has been a lot of hype around a guy that really produces just average numbers at the position.

Sandoval has only hit 20+ HR’s twice over the last 6 seasons. He has always hit for a solid AVG, so that should continue to play at Fenway. He may see his HR’s raise some by batting in some of the more hitter friendly ballparks in baseball, but fantasy owners should not expect a career season.

I see Sandoval as a nice CI option that way your expectations are tempered but the upside is still there at a limited cost. I think an optimistic projection would be around a .280/20/80 line.

Josh Harrison– Man, who saw that coming? Harrison took full advantage of his playing time last season and posted a career year. He hit .347/13/18, providing tremendous in season value.

Fantasy owners will have to gauge what they believe that Harrison can do as an encore. The AVG will certainly come down, largely due to an inflated .353 BABIP. However, the speed should remain and the power could hover around 10-15. He has multi-positional eligibility helping his value. He once again falls under that CI umbrella, but he still remains of decent value.

Tier 4- Upside Plays

Xander Bogaerts-All the buzz and hype that surrounded Bogaerts going into 2014 eventually drove his draft stock up to the point where there was no value to be had. For Xander to provide value this year, the Red Sox need to leave him alone at SS and fantasy owners need to temper expectations. Xander Bogarets has 20 HR potential, and he is definitely worth a CI selection. The upside is still there, so do not dismiss him after just one season.

Pedro Alvarez– Alvarez was horrendous last season at 3B, so he will transition over to 1B like Ryan Zimmerman. Hopefully, these defensive worries are off Alvarez’s mind, so he concentrate on what he does best, which is hit HR’s.

Alvarez was an All-Star in 2013 and he had back to back 30 HR seasons in 2012-2013. The power is there and it is legit. Alvarez is flying under most radars, but he is the perfect bounce back candidate. His numbers should resemble Davis’s, and that is well worth a CI slot. Do not sleep on him.

Kris Bryant– If he was just given the job from the get go, he would definitely be higher in the rankings. He gets the “can’t miss” prospect label a lot, but it is not without merit.

Bryant has shown prestigious power all throughout the minors and fantasy owners are patiently waiting for him to get the starting nod. He probably will not get the call until at least May, so fantasy owners could take a wait and see approach.

I think, if your league allows it, that Bryant is worth drafting and stashing because the potential is just too much to ignore. When he gets the call, do not expect a high AVG, but Bryant should flirt with 20 HR’s.

Nick Castellanos– A quiet candidate to breakout this season is Castellanos. While his 2014, was modest (.259/11/66), he did show all the signs that he will continue to take the next step in developing. Castellanos is a nice CI option as he could put up a helpful .265/15/70 line.

Tier 5- Fall-Back Options

Martin Prado– Prado is another one of those fantasy players that I hail as stabilizers. He will always provide a solid AVG, and chip in double digit HR’s. He can be had in the very last rounds in drafts, but the value he brings allows you to cover up some of the holes that may have manifested within your team.

Chase Headley– Headley will never get back to that career year in 2012, even in New York. But, that does not mean that he still cannot provide some ample value. I can see Headley putting up a .260/15/60 line that would suffice for your CI spot. He is a decent gamble at the latter end of your drafts.

Trevor Plouffe– How many fantasy owners would have guessed that Plouffe actually knocked in 80 RBI’s last season? Well, he did and he quietly put up a career season in Minnesota. The AVG will be ugly and he may flirt with 20 HR’s, so there is value here. Just temper expectations and you may find a nice late round contributor at your CI spot.

Aramis Ramirez– This will be his swan song, and Ramirez has often been overlooked as one of the better 3B over the last 10 years. The last 2 seasons though he has failed to hit more than 15 HR’s and has battled injuries. Going into his age 37 season, don’t expect a vintage year, but a .280/20/70 is certainly in play. Target him late.

Brett Lawrie– It would not be right if a 3B list did have a mention of the enigma that is Brett Lawrie. Year after year, fantasy owners thought they were going to get him for his breakout season. Yet, it is still nowhere to be found, Lawrie is nothing but a late round flier, but that potential is still there somewhere. Just know what to expect.

Looking For More?

C,SS,RP