Brett Gardner 2015 Projections

Aug 15, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner (11) at bat against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Last season was a special one for Brett Gardner. He saw a big uptick in his power production, but other stats suffered. Will Gardner be able to carry the power surge over into 2015 or was last season a rare occurance?

From 2008 to 2013, Gardner hit just 23 total home runs. He hit 17 in 2014 alone. He also hit a career-high RBI with 58, but struck out a career-high 134 times. With Gardner swinging for the fences more than usual, Gardner’s batting average and on-base percentance took a hit. He hit a .256/.327/.422 line.

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The .422 slugging percentage was the highest of his career, which is no surprised based on his home runs. The average and OBP were the lowest since his rookie season in 2008.

If Gardner continues to try to hit more home runs instead of base hits, I would avoid drafting him. He would be a below average power hitter with a low batting average and on-base percentage.

On the other hand, if he goes back to a typical leadoff hitter, he becomes a top 30 outfielder. I would rather have Gardner rack up the hits and get on base than have him try to hit 20 home runs with a .250 average.

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The big question is if Gardner’s power is here to stay or was a one-season wonder. With the New York Yankees lineup the way it is, the team likely needs him to be a power hitter and hit 20 home runs.

He also isn’t the big base stealer he once was. Gardner stole 24 bases in 2013 and 21 in 2014. He had 47 and 49 in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The decrease in perfomance on the bases is another tally in the “reasons not to draft Gardner” column.

ESPN ranks Gardner as the 31st-best outfielder. NFBC ranks him at No. 39, 151.9 ADP. In a standard 10-team league, Gardner is a servicable OF4. However, with the lack of speed and inconsistencies at the plate makes Gardner a late-round selection.

Projections: 74 R, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 21 SB, .257/.328/.395. Drafted in Round 16