Chicago Cubs Pitchers: 2015 Team Preview
Sep 24, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
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It is important to remember that Jon Lester is coming off a career year with Boston and Oakland. In fact, Jon Lester has never had a sub 3.00 ERA until last season. I still have Lester as my 15th ranked SP and inside the top 60 at this moment, but he has a lower than floor than the pitchers above him. However, Jon Lester should benefit from his first season of not facing designated hitters, and I believe that he does a little better than Tanner’s projections as he touches a 3.00 ERA.
I firmly believe that Jake Arrieta is the real deal. His 2.26 FIP is even better than his 2.53 ERA. Arrieta threw 156.2 innings in his 25 starts. He had 22 starts where he gave up three or fewer runs. In Arrieta’s 25, he had 19 QS and most of his shorter outings (less than six innings) came in the first month of his 2014 season.
The other two short starts where when Jake Arrieta had got hammered at Cincinnati and at Colorado. I am not concerned at all about either shellacking because they both happened in very hitter-friendly parks and bad days happen. Jake Arrieta was simply dominant for the Cubs in 2014, and it seemed like he was taking almost every start deep into a no-hitter by the end of the season. He will still be a nice value because a lot of people will incorrectly pick him to regress.
The Cubs have a nice value pick at closer with Hector Rondon. At worst, Rondon will post average numbers for a closer, but his production will come at a pretty decent price. I think we should easily be looking at a sub 3.00 ERA and at least a strikeout per inning. Also, I think that Tanner’s projection of 35 saves is spot on for Hector Rondon.
While the new staff ace of the Cubs may not be the greatest value, Arrieta and Rondon are likely going to be great picks for your fantasy team. Neither player has a high enough ADP based on last year’s stats, which is very encouraging because their numbers appear to be sustainable. As long as pitching coach, Chris Bosio, continues to work his magic, then draft some arms from the Chicago Cubs.
Tanner Bell of Smart Fantasy Baseball has created all of the projections seen in this post. You can read about how he develops his projections here. His projections are invaluable to this site. You can also visit his site at www.smartfantasybaseball.com.