St. Louis Cardinals Pitchers: 2015 Team Preview
Oct 16, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) throws against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning of game five of the 2014 NLCS playoff at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
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Adam Wainwright has been one of the best pitchers in the game for quite a few years now, but I am probably going to avoid him as my fantasy ace. He allowed the highest percentage of line drives among qualified starters in 2014, but his LD% has been 23% or higher for the past three seasons. Wainwright seems to defy convention in that regard because a sky-high line drive rate is a red flag for regression.
His .267 BABIP and 5.3% HR/FB rate in 2014 were significantly luckier than his career norms. His K/9 of 7.10 in 2014 was over a full strikeout lower than any of his numbers from 2009 to 2013. When you combine Adam Wainwright’s skill and luck, it resulted in a nasty 2.38 ERA in 2014, but these peripherals scream regression in 2015. With SP being so insanely deep in today’s run-depressed environment, I would look somewhere else with fewer warning signals.
Lance Lynn has quietly become a very good pitcher for the Cardinals. He strikes out batters and keeps the ball in the park. As a result, his career ERA of 3.48 and 48 wins in his first three seasons as a Major League starter is not too shabby. Since Lynn is on a very good Cardinals team that seems likely to win 90+ games again, Lance Lynn is going to rack up wins, K’s, and provide a respectable or even very good ERA for your fantasy team.
Michael Wacha’s success will ultimately be dictated by his health because Wacha flashes a ton of talent. I am probably a little lower on Michael Wacha than the average person because I am very fearful of him being hurt again in 2015. On the other hand, this leads to Wacha being a high risk, high reward option because his career ERA of 3.04 is very enticing, but he still has less than 200 career innings. Michael Wacha could make me look very foolish for not drafting him this year.
Even with 45 saves in 2014, Trevor Rosenthal was a slight disappointment because he blew six saves and had an ERA of 3.20 and WHIP of 1.41 despite huge expectations. The career 31.1% strikeout rate and massive save potential keeps Trevor Rosenthal safely inside the top ten closers for 2015, but the biggest part of his fantasy success is due to being on the Cardinals who have loads of save opportunities.
Tanner Bell of Smart Fantasy Baseball has created all of the projections seen in this post. You can read about how he develops his projections here. His projections are invaluable to this site. You can also visit his site at www.smartfantasybaseball.com.
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