Boston Red Sox Pitchers: 2015 Team Preview
Sep 25, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Koji Uehara (19) pitches during the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
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As hard as I try, I cannot convince myself to tell you to draft any of these starters. New acquisition Rick Porcello is projected to have the best ERA and WHIP, but those numbers are not enough to warrant a draft pick, especially when you consider the fact that his career K/9 is only 5.49.
Justin Masterson and Clay Buchholz should both definitely be better in 2015 than they were this past season, but improvement will still not do enough for their fantasy profiles. Masterson and Buchholz were both hammered by balls in play, but regression to the mean is not enough to warrant a pick. Justin Masterson walks way too many hitters and Clay Buchholz’s 2013 season was a career outlier.
Wade Miley was very promising in 2012, but so was Chase Headley and I am not rushing to draft him. Nonetheless, Miley is probably my favorite option of the Red Sox starters because he has posted a ground ball rate north of 50% for the past two seasons and a career best 8.18 K/9 and 21.1% K%. On the other hand, his walk rate rose for the third straight season. I think we see Wade Miley produce better numbers than his projections, but he will not replicate 2012.
The most interesting member of this list of Red Sox pitchers is easily 40 year-old Koji Uehara. He has spent six seasons in the Major Leagues and Uehara has been an elite reliever since 2010. In the past few seasons, Koji Uehara’s worst K rate has been 31.6% and his worst BB rate has been 3.7%. There is arguably no one in MLB with better control than Koji Uehara. As a result, his worst K/BB and K-BB% is 9.44 and 28.7%, respectively.
The long ball was a bit of an issue for Koji Uehara and the Red Sox pitchers in 2014, but his body of work speaks for itself. A career worst 14.3% HR/FB% is hopefully just bad luck, but the 22.6% line drive rate is worrisome. I am probably going to ignore the red flag and still want the over the hill closer on my team because he is a special talent and has posted stud ratios for five years running.
Tanner Bell of Smart Fantasy Baseball has created all of the projections seen in this post. You can read about how he develops his projections here. His projections are invaluable to this site. You can also visit his site at www.smartfantasybaseball.com.