Is Matt Kemp going to San Diego a Disaster?

October 4, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Matt Kemp (27) has gatorade poured celebrating the 3-2 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals following game two of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Kemp is heading down the West Coast to beautiful Petco Park in San Diego.  While this deal is a gigantic plus for the San Diego Padres lineup, will the move to the very pitcher-friendly park harm his fantasy numbers?

My answer is that it will likely harm his numbers, but I do not think the effect will be as big as everyone expects.  The two obvious concerns are that his numbers will suffer due to playing half his home games at Petco Park and the lack of protection.

However, I think that one positive factor that has been overlooked is that Matt Kemp will never have to deal with an overcrowded outfield.  While Kemp did manage to appear in 150 games in 2014, he will only sit in 2015 if he is injured (which is a major fear) or needs rest/maintenance.  If Matt Kemp stays healthy, then we could see him play an extra ten games in 2015 because he only missed 11 total games between 2008 and 2011.

As for the negatives, it is not like Dodger Stadium is exactly the most hitter-friendly park.  Sure, you may see Matt Kemp lose a home run or two due to playing up to 81 games at Petco Park, but I think people are overly concerned with park effects.  Unless a player moves in or out of Coors Field, the difference in production due to the ballpark should not be that significant.

The other concern is that Matt Kemp will go from a lineup that featured Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hanley Ramirez.  Now, Matt Kemp will be surrounded by Jedd Gyorko and Carlos Quentin.  That is quite the drop-off in terms of teammates, but lineup protection is another thing that is overrated.  The two main fears of Kemp moving to San Diego are not really that much of a concern.  It will only have a slight negative impact.

What really matters is if we see first half Matt Kemp or second half Matt Kemp assuming he stays healthy.  Prior to the All-Star Break in 2014, Kemp played 86 games where he scored 38 runs, hit 8 home runs, drove in 35 RBI’s, and hit .269.  In his 64 games after the Midsummer Classic, he played like vintage Kemp with 39 runs scored, slammed 17 homers, drove in 54 base runners, and hit .309.

Essentially, Matt Kemp will be one of three players: respectable hitter like he was in the first half, superstar bat like he was in the second half, or injured.  I am optimistic that we see his best season since 2011, but maybe Andrew Friedman did not feel the same way.

I will take my chances on a player who hit 25 homers and had an .852 OPS in an era that seems to be declining in power.  In fact, his 2014 OPS+ ranked seventh in all of Major League Baseball.  He has near elite power and people may be scared because Kemp is now with the Padres.  Personally, I will probably be taking a chance on him in the fourth or fifth round of a draft.