Baseless Winter Meetings Predictions
Jon Lester returns to the Boston Red Sox.
It looks like the Cubs and the Red Sox are the two frontrunners based on reports, offers, and educated guesses. Lester and Boston reportedly have a good relationship despite Boston shipping him to Oakland back in July. The Red Sox have made Lester an offer that should be at least $130 million for six years.
Even if the Cubs, Yankees, or Braves offer a similar deal to Jon Lester, I just feel like he enjoyed his first go around at Fenway Park and wants to come back to his club. I think the deal will be in the range of $130 to $140 million for six years. As seemingly successful as Theo Epstein has been so far, I believe he loses out on the Lester sweepstakes to his former club.
Max Scherzer is not signed during the Winter Meetings.
The best free agent will command a hefty price tag for his services, especially with his relatively low number of innings pitched for someone his age along with his recent greatness. Of course, Scherzer is also a client of Scott Boras, so you can expect his binders to be full of reasons to sign Max Scherzer for top dollar.
I think the fact that Max Scherzer will be a slightly tougher signing makes Jon Lester the first major free arm to sign. Of course, Scherzer will sign a very large deal in the relatively near future, but I do not know where he will sign although the Yankees and Tigers seem to be logical choices. Then again, the Cubs could go in for Scherzer if they fail to sign Lester.
Ultimately, I think Max Scherzer ends up with the Yankees because they can afford such a big signing and they may want another frontline pitcher, especially because who knows how Masahiro Tanaka’s healthy rehabbed UCL really is.
The Dodgers do not trade an outfielder during the Winter Meetings.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a gigantic logjam in their outfield with at least five possible options for 2015. The obvious surplus means that the Dodgers need to trade at least one outfielder as soon as they can. Ideally, they would plan to deal Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford, but both of those players are a very difficult sell.
Ethier and Crawford are both expensive and underperforming, so no team would be interested unless the Dodgers eat a large chunk of their massive salaries. Eating the money is just a prerequisite to trade Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford because there still is the matter of getting something in return. If one of those players is dealt, then the Dodgers will likely have to pay for a good portion of their contracts and only receive a middling prospect.
Of course, the Dodgers could deal one of their more prized outfielders in Matt Kemp, Joc Pederson, or Yasiel Puig. Puig is easily the most attractive option because of his great production, contract, age, and superstardom. I cannot imagine that the Dodgers move Puig or even prized prospect, Joc Pederson, because those players are the present and the future.
Matt Kemp is on a huge deal as well, but his second-half production makes me believe that the Dodgers want to keep him around. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a team in win-now mode, so I expect that Puig, Pederson, and Kemp will be their three outfielders on Opening Day because they are their three best options. I believe one of Ethier or Crawford will be moved at some point, but I do not think it happens during the Winter Meetings.