Outfield Keepers to Target: Part II
Sep 5, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Wil Myers (9) singled during the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Part I of this article can be found here. The first few paragraphs of that article explain that I am generally focusing on outfielders who would likely be kept in a league where there are 100-150 total keepers. Essentially, their value is of probably seen as a top 100, 150, or 200 player in a keeper league.
Marcell Ozuna of the Miami Marlins
Total number of keepers in the league: 100+
The Miami Marlins outfield was very good in 2014, and it seems like the trio is only getting started. Ozuna hit only 3 homers in 2013, but that number nearly was tenfold this season when he hit 23 home runs. The power is for real because Marcell Ozuna’s larger sample size in the Minors tells us that he has 79 home runs in 403 career games. That rate works out to a home run roughly every 5.1 games or approximately 31.76 homers per 162 games.
Of course, I would not expect Marcell Ozuna to maintain that HR pace at the Major League level, but he showed that the power would translate. There is no reason that Ozuna cannot hit 20-30 home runs on an annual basis even at the cavernous Marlins Park.
His power will come with misses as Marcell Ozuna posted the 13th highest swinging strike percentage this season. While a few of the names with high swinging strike rates tend to struggle at the dish, Jose Abreu, Adam Jones, Carlos Gomez, and Matt Kemp all finished in the top ten in that category. It is almost an indicator of power in many cases (though it is not causation).
Ozuna will never be a five category player, but he should continue to be a very good option in homers, runs, and RBI’s going forward.
Wil Myers of the Tampa Bay Rays
Total number of keepers in the league: 100+
When the Kansas City Royals dealt Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields, there were a significant number of people who felt the Royals were crazy for trading away such a vaunted hitting prospect when they did not seem close to contending at the time. As history now shows, the Royals were apparently ready to compete and the Rays received a valuable prospect. Not every trade has a winner and loser.
In June 2013, Wil Myers was called up to the MLB club in Tampa Bay, and he was already slashing .352/.406/.557 in July. While Myers struggled in August 2013, he closed the season out strong with a .308/.362/.542 slash line in September and October. He only managed 87 games this season due to injuries, so he may be flying under the radar next year.
Wil Myers will only be 24 next season and he swings a big bat. He could be a player who provides his team with a .900 OPS and 25 round trippers for years to come. The 2013 AL Rookie of the Year missed a significant amount of time due to a wrist injury, which can be devastating to a hitter’s power. I would expect Myers to be fully healed and ready to roll in 2015. Buy now before the stock is sky high.
J.D. Martinez of the Detroit Tigers
Total number of keepers in the league: 150+
One of the breakout players of 2014 was undoubtedly J.D. Martinez and his shockingly good numbers. He slashed .315/.358/.553, had a wOBA of .391, and hit 23 home runs in only 123 games as a virtually undrafted commodity after three relatively unsuccessful seasons with the Houston Astros. Martinez reworked his swing, and it paid obvious dividends as he performed to an arguably elite fantasy level.
As great as J.D. Martinez’s season was, there are plenty of concerns for regression because of his sky high .389 BABIP, a pretty unimpressive .24 BB/K, a 19.5% HR/FB percentage, and the fact that he scratched out ten infield hits. A part of Martinez’s success was luck-driven, but you do not hit for a .912 OPS by going up there with your eyes closed.
Even if you believe that Martinez will regress in 2015, it seems like no one will be paying for his 2014 numbers. I really think all of his counting stats will return and he may possibly improve in the runs and RBI’s categories because he could definitely get in more than 123 games in 2015. The batting average could drop to .280 or even lower, but J.D. Martinez would still be a productive player and a good value even with that average.
Another school of thought regarding keeping a player like J.D. Martinez is that what if 2014 becomes the new normal. We have seen plenty of players make the jump mid-career and never look back. Cliff Lee and a pair of Toronto sluggers are notable stars with remarkable levels of improvement. Martinez may be a strong candidate for regression, but he also could be a diamond in the rough that is still not fully uncovered.