Outfield Keepers to Target: Part I
Oct 2, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Joc Pederson (65) during workouts on the day before game one of the 2014 NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodgers Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
The difficulty of discussing keeper leagues in these articles is that there are just so many settings and stipulations. Some leagues have contracts and player salaries, while others have no penalty. For simplicity’s sake, I am going to assume that we are dealing with players that you can keep forever with no penalty.
Another aspect of keeper leagues that could make it difficult to discuss is the massive range of the numbers of keepers in your league. For example, there are leagues that only keep one player per team while other leagues are full dynasties. For the sake of this article (and part II tomorrow), most of the players discussed are probably worthy of keeper status that have around 100-150 total keepers between all teams.
In fact, I will make note of the approximate numbers of players being kept in a league for the outfielder to be keeper worthy. For example, Andrew McCutchen will be used in any league that keeps at least ten players total (or one player each in a ten man league). Of course, McCutchen is a consensus top five player, and it is beyond obvious that you should target him.
Without further ado, here are some potentially valuable keepers that could be acquired for less than their market value in a keeper league:
Arismendy Alcantara of the Chicago Cubs
Total number of keepers in the league: 150+
Alcantara is one of the higher rated Cubs prospects who debuted in 2014. In AAA, he hit 10 homers and stole 21 bases in 89 games. In Chicago, he also sent 10 over the fence and swiped 8 bases in the Majors in 70 games.
However, there was a massive difference in his overall production between MLB and AAA. He hit over .100 points higher (.307 versus .205 in Chicago) and saw his BB/K ratio drop from .30 to .18. His OBP also fell .099 points during his time in the show and his OPS plummeted from a very good .890 in Iowa to .621 with the Chicago Cubs.
Sure, Arismendy Alcantara was not that good during his first cup of coffee, but it is highly likely he will get better. Alcantara will almost assuredly strikeout less and hit for a better average. In fact, a batting average of .250 is certainly possible in 2015.
His real value comes from his ability to hit homers and steal bases. In 70 games where he struggled at the plate, Alcantara still hit 10 homers and stole 8 bases. That means a 20-20 season is very feasible. Since only five players accomplished a 20-20 season in 2014, then that would put Arismendy Alcantara in pretty nice company. Alcantara may not reach superstar status like some of his other teammates, but he could be a nice value for some pop and speed.
Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays
Total number of keepers in the league: 10+
While Jose Bautista may not fit into the criteria that I outlined at the beginning of the article, he is worth targeting in the outfield in keeper leagues because he may be slightly devalued compared to the other top ten players. This is because Jose Bautista is 34 years old. Therefore, some owners may wish to move him for a younger option.
If you do have an owner who wants to sell Bautista, then you could acquire him for ninety cents on the dollar because of the pressing concerns about his age. Of course, you can only reasonably expect another season or two from Jose Bautista at this level, but pull the trigger if your keeper team can win a title. Let another owner drool over his 2018 keepers while you win a league title.
Joc Pederson of the Los Angeles Dodgers
Total number of keepers in the league: 100+
It may be hard to use a keeper spot on a player that is not currently slated to start on a MLB roster unless you have a decent number of keepers or you play in a large league, but Pederson is worth it. The Dodgers are actively shopping outfielders and they want Joc Pederson to be an everyday player for them, so he could see a huge jump in his value prior to Opening Day in 2015.
That means that now is the time to jump on Pederson before his value truly explodes. He has destroyed MiLB pitching from 2012 to 2014 in A+, AA, and AAA ball, respectively. The rave reviews about Pederson may make him difficult to pry him from his owner, especially if the owner has a young keeper set. Nevertheless, it still could not hurt to send over an offer or simply select Pederson as a keeper because many great talent evaluators see him as a future superstar.
Joc Pederson has the ability and potential to make a George Springer like impact in 2015. Hopefully that is enough motivation for you to acquire him this offseason, especially before the Dodgers make any moves in their outfield logjam.