Nelson Cruz-ing on up to Seattle
Oct 2, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Nelson Cruz (23) celebrates after hitting a two run home run during the first inning in game one of the 2014 American League divisional series against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
It seems that the Seattle Mariners have needed a power threat forever, but they finally may have found their man in 34-year old Nelson Cruz. In 2014, Cruz surprisingly led MLB with 40 home runs on a one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles. He parlayed his successes in Baltimore into a four-year deal worth $57 million.
While no one is expecting Nelson Cruz to repeat a career year where he scored 87 runs, hit 40 homers, drove in 108 base runners, and slashed .271/.333/.525, he will be expected to be a middle of the order bat in a lineup that desperately needs one. Fantasy owners are hoping for fairly big production as well because Cruz will likely be a third round draft pick.
While his projected 2015 ADP is a major bargain for his 2014 numbers, there is no doubt that there will be some regression for Nelson Cruz next season. He is injury prone, 34 years old, and he is moving from Camden Yards to Safeco Field. In fact, I would be very happy if Cruz manages to score 70 runs, hit 30 homers, and drive in 85 runs.
Since the Seattle offense is anemic, especially compared to Baltimore, the run and RBI opportunities will be far less frequent for Nelson Cruz. Even though Nelson Cruz’s stats will almost assuredly take a sizable hit in 2015, it does not mean he will be a bad pick. No one is expecting a repeat of last year, except for maybe Cruz himself and his agent.
Only 11 players hit 30 or more home runs in 2014, so the growing rarity of the long ball makes sluggers more valuable as their power becomes even scarcer. Even with the move to Seattle and a lengthy injury history, Nelson Cruz is still a solid bet to hit 25 home runs or more. Beyond his propensity to hit homers, Cruz has maintained a .260 batting average or better dating back to 2008 and even hit .318 in an injury-plagued 2010 season.
Cruz offers excellent production in homers and RBI’s and solid numbers in average and runs. As long as his repeated quad injuries do not flare up again, then he will be a top 30 hitter. Nelson Cruz always had fantastic per game numbers, but he has been limited by missed games throughout his career.
- 2009: 128 games played and 33 homers
- 2010: 108 games played and 22 homers
- 2011: 124 games played and 29 homers
- 2013: 109 games played and 27 homers
The power is unquestionable, but so are his semi-annual trips to the DL. Nelson Cruz has played like a third round player or better when he has been on the field during the last six years. If you are willing to take a chance on an injury prone, aging ballplayer, then you could get a nice return on your pick. While a repeat of 2014 is not reasonable, there is no reason to be scared of Nelson Cruz moving to Seattle.