Troy Tulowitzki: a Roto-Only Investment
Jul 15, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; National League infielder Troy Tulowitzki (2) of the Colorado Rockies throws to first base in the first inning during the 2014 MLB All Star Game at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies is the best shortstop in baseball and that is not up for debate. However, Tulo is very injury prone, and it significantly detracts from his value of being one of the truly elite fantasy baseball players. Prior to this season’s major hip injury that shut him down on July 19th, Troy Tulowitzki was the top player in all of fantasy.
In just 91 games, Tulo was better than any shortstop eligible players in 2014 outside of Ian Desmond and Dee Gordon. I personally think that Troy Tulowitzki’s rate stats were the most impressive aspect of his 2014 season. He hit for a .340 batting average, got on-base over 43% of the time, and his OPS was a whopping 1.035. Tulowitzki was able to do all of this at the plate while playing plus defense for the Colorado Rockies.
It is crazy to consider that Tulo was a top three shortstop in 2014 despite the fact that he sat out the last 2.5 months of the season. Only Ian Desmond hit more home runs (24) than Troy Tulowitzki’s limited campaign that featured 71 runs, 21 bombs, 52 RBI’s, and a .444 wOBA. Again, Troy Tulowitzki was the number one ranked fantasy player as of July 19th. This ranking had nothing to do with positional scarcity. Tulo is just that scary good.
The offensive chasm between Troy Tulowitzki and the rest of his positional counterparts is possibly the biggest in all of baseball. Buster Posey’s massive lead over the rest of the catching field is the only other position with such a gap from the best and the second best.
As incredible as Troy Tulowitzki is, his lengthy injury history is beyond alarming. In his eight year career, Tulowitzki has averaged 117 games played per season. That means he has missed 45 games a year over the course of his career. The last three seasons are showing a worsening trend as Tulo has only managed 88 games per season since 2012.
It is very hard to justify a second round pick who will only play half the season no matter how great he is when he plays. In a head-to-head league, you cannot afford multiple weeks of zero production from one of your team’s cornerstones. Tulowitzki may have propelled your team in the early months, but he left your team hanging in the critical fantasy baseball postseason.
On the other hand, roto leagues use an accumulation of season long stats, so it does not matter when your players produce. If you believe that the top shortstop in the game is worth the risk, then you should roll the dice on Troy Tulowitzki in a roto league because even two-thirds of a season or half of a season of Tulo is not the worst return in the world.
In fact, Ian Desmond will probably cost around the same price as Troy Tulowitzki and will likely offer similar overall production if Tulo misses time as usual. In the off chance that Tulo is healthy, you struck gold because you are paying an Ian Desmond price for a top five overall fantasy baseball player.
In a head-to-head league, Tulo ranks highly on my do not draft list, but I think he still could offer value in a roto league because Ian Desmond’s level of production is very possible even if Troy Tulowitzki succumbs to injuries yet again.