Pablo Sandoval: A Panda in a New Habitat?
Oct 29, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval (bottom) celebrates with teammates after catching a pop out for the final out of game seven of the 2014 World Series against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Pablo Sandoval seems to be one of the playoff heroes every other year now. His special performances in the 2012 and 2014 postseasons made it seem like Sandoval was one of the premier players in baseball to anyone who just watched in October. However, it has been three years since Pablo Sandoval has reproduced some of his playoff magic during the regular season.
In addition, Pablo Sandoval is one of the big ticket free agents this offseason, so the Kung-Fu Panda will continue to be the talk of the town. Before you invest in Sandoval, you should consider that he is only averaging 14 home runs a year for the past three seasons. His 7.5% walk rate is below average and his .144 ISO is not so impressive for a man who looks like he has 35 home run power.
When it comes to Sandoval, he will be drafted somewhere around the 100th pick and probably provide you with value that is more like that of the 150th pick. While drafting Pablo Sandoval will not burn your team, there are better players to spend that pick. In fact, I think Aramis Ramirez (who I wrote about in yesterday’s article found here) will produce similar numbers, but he will go about three to five rounds later.
My assumption is that Pablo Sandoval remains with the San Francisco Giants. Whatever they are doing by the Bay, it seems to be working incredibly well, and I would assume they intend to keep their core intact. Offering a six-year deal to Sandoval would not be that absurd because he is a productive 28-year old player. If Sandoval walks from San Francisco, then I think his fantasy value will rise.
There is no question that AT&T Park is one of the most difficult parks to hit in. Certain areas of the outfield are very cavernous, the ballpark is at zero elevation, and the wind usually blows in from McCovey Cove. It makes the impossible achievements of the all-time great Barry Bonds even more impressive when he utterly dominated the game of baseball at an extreme pitchers’ park.
If Pablo Sandoval remains a Giant like I expect, then his numbers should reflect something relatively close to what I posted above. On the other hand, I have read that the Boston Red Sox are all in on Sandoval and that could potentially change his value quite a bit. Fenway Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in MLB with its bandbox dimensions. Sandoval’s numbers would almost increase by default if he became a member of the Boston Red Sox.
If a move like that were to happen, then his 2015 production could reflect something closer to his 2009 and 2011 numbers where he hit for 25 and 23 home runs and slashed .330/.387/.556 and .315/.357/.552, respectively. While the slash line is far from a guarantee, a bump in power would be expected if Pablo Sandoval moved to almost any other ballpark.
Of course, Pablo Sandoval’s draft day price will also rise if he moves to a hitter-friendly team and field. His move will certainly not fly under the radar as a postseason and World Series hero as well as being one of the stars of the offseason. Consequently, Pablo Sandoval will probably not return much value for you in fantasy at his draft day price, but all that matters for San Francisco is that he has produced when it matters.