Is Jose Abreu Still Undervalued?

Sep 25, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) hits a single against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago White Sox secured the services of Jose Abreu from Cuba and he rewarded them dearly with a season worthy of MVP candidacy. In The Cell, Abreu mashed 36 homers in 145 games.  He provided 80 runs, 107 RBI’s, and a .317/.383/.581 slash line that made him one of the top players in the game.

Jose Abreu is the obvious choice for AL Rookie of the Year and no else even has a chance.  Abreu posted the best stats out of all first basemen in 2014, which is pretty incredible because he had to compete with the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, and many other great bats.

Abreu found himself leading all first basemen in a plethora of categories including, but not limited to, home runs, slugging, wOBA (.411), wRC+ (165), and ISO (.264).  It does not take much to conclude that he was the top power hitting first baseman in the Majors.  Jose Abreu was the Major League leader in slugging percentage.

Jose Abreu was also the leading first baseman in BABIP.  His .356 BABIP was tied for the fourth BABIP in the entire MLB in 2014.  I guess you could contend that Abreu is a candidate for regression, but Jose Abreu should be one of the league leaders in BABIP.  He hits for a high average, hits the ball hard, and sends it far.

Another impressive Abreu factoid is that 23.3% of his batted balls were line drives, which helps to explain the high BABIP.  A higher line drive rate correlates with a higher BABIP.  Again, the .356 seems a little high, but it is far from concerning if you watch Jose Abreu dominate at the plate.

The fact that Jose Abreu sent 26.9% of his fly balls out of the park seems like another possibility for regression, but it also speaks to his massive power.  Will over a quarter of his fly balls be worth four bases in 2015?  Probably not, but we do not have an extensive track record, so nothing could shock me at this point.  For all we know, Abreu could be even better next year.

I remember reading an article about Jose Abreu’s legendary numbers and home runs in Cuba before the White Sox signed him.  I assumed that some of the information was exaggerated, but I was proven wrong there as Abreu demonstrated that he could hit a baseball about as well as any human on Earth.

I still feel like there is a slight bit of mistrust as owners may choose to draft a more proven option with their first pick next season.  I can only assume that Miggy, Goldy, and possibly Encarnacion will be drafted above Jose Abreu at the first base position, but Abreu out produced all of them last season.  The other three players are also fantastic options, but I think Abreu has the most upside and all four of them have an incredibly high floor.

I would hope that I land a pick closer to eighth pick rather than third pick in any 2015 snake drafts I participate in because I think I could receive the same production at a marginally better value.

Jose Abreu could very well find himself with less production in 2015, but his 2014 performance proved that he is one of the most complete hitters in the game.  Draft him with no concerns as your first round pick.  In fact, maybe look at him over the other elite first baggers.