Closers with More Saves in 2015: Part II
Sep 16, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Cody Allen (37) and catcher Yan Gomes (10) celebrate after defeating the Houston Astros 4-2 at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
This portion of the article is copied from Part I:
"Regardless of the price you pay for a closer, you are hoping that they will at least match their save total from the previous season. I know it is very early to think about next year, but I have already pegged six closers who I think will see their save total rise next year.In the first part of the post, I will list the first three closers and why I believe their save total will rise in 2015. The second part of this article will obviously go over the other three closers. The closers are sorted by their 2014 save total in descending order.Of course, an increased save total is only likely if these six players remain in the ninth inning for their team and they remain healthy throughout the year."
Part I of this two-part article can be found here.
2014: 26 saves
2015: 30-35 saves
39 year-old Koji Uehara of the Boston Red Sox is one of my favorite closers in the game. Despite his advanced age, Uehara is able to replicate the numbers of an upper tier closer even with a fastball that only sniffs 90 MPH once in a blue moon.
I think one of the truly amazing things about Koji Uehara is that he induces a swinging strike rate of 25.9% on his fastballs. On the other hand, flame throwing Aroldis Chapman has managed a 15.9% swinging strike percentage on his fastball. How an 88 MPH fastball misses swinging bats 10% more of the time than a 101 MPH fastball is one of the true mysteries of baseball.
(It would be very unfair to Chapman to not recognize that his slider garners a swinging strike rate of 21.8% and his change-up makes hitters swing and miss an absurd 27.6% of the time. Chris Dionne pointed out earlier this week that Chapman has the best swinging strike percentage in MLB).
Aside from my swinging strike tangent, I expect the Red Sox to win more than 71 games in 2015. Plus, Uehara recorded all 26 of his saves between Opening Day and August 12th.
A few unsuccessful outings in mid-August and the simple wearing down over a long baseball season saw a premature end to Koji Uehara’s role in the ninth inning in 2014.
Even with only 26 saves, Uehara is the riskiest pick on this list to earn more saves in 2015 because he will turn 40 years old during the Opening Week next year.
2014: 24 saves
2015: 35 saves
Cody Allen is a pretty easy choice for me because of how well he pitched for the Tribe last season. When Allen finally took control of the closer’s gig, he continued to post terrific numbers that saw him finish the season with a 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 11.76 K/9.
I have no clue why it took Terry Francona and the Cleveland Indians so long to install Cody Allen as their full-time closer.
I guess you could say that selecting a closer for this list who did not close from start to finish is taking the easy way out, but I think Cody Allen should be a guy you target in 2015. Those types of stats are borderline elite for a closer, the Indians won 85 games, and Cody Allen has nasty stuff with a fastball that averages over 95 MPH.
I think Allen is a top 10 closer with a top 15-20 price tag. I am all in on him in 2015.
2014: 22 saves
2015: 40-45 saves
In my opinion, I saved the best for last. (It actually just worked out that way because Sean Doolittle earned the fewest saves of these six pitchers in 2014).
Doolittle posted a spectacular 12.78 K/9 to go along with a 1.71 FIP and 1.53 SIERA. Those are the type of stats that you would expect from Greg Holland of the Kansas City Royals.
Besides Sean Doolittle’s dominating numbers during his run as Oakland’s closer, I wholeheartedly believe that the Oakland A’s are a lot closer to the team they were in the first half than the ragtag bunch we saw in the second half of the season.
A full season as the closer of what should be a 90+ win team bodes well for a pitcher who could make a serious run at joining the big four closers of fantasy baseball.
Maybe my prediction of 40-45 saves is a little overzealous, but I think the writing is on the wall for Sean Doolittle to possibly double his 2014 save total and possess a sub 2.00 ERA.
Out of these six closers, I would personally recommend drafting Hector Rondon, Cody Allen, and Sean Doolittle because of their potentially underappreciated value. Of course, Aroldis Chapman will never disappoint you, but he will cost a pretty penny come draft day in the spring.