Closers with More Saves in 2015: Part I
Sep 3, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Hector Rondon (56) throws the ball against the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field. The Cubs won 6-2. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Regardless of the price you pay for a closer, you are hoping that they will at least match their save total from the previous season. I know it is very early to think about next year, but I have already pegged six closers who I think will see their save total rise.
In the first part of this two-part post, I will list the first three closers and why I believe their save total will rise in 2015. The second part of this article will obviously go over the other three closers. The closers are sorted by their 2014 save total in descending order.
Of course, an increased save total is only likely if these six players remain in the ninth inning for their team and they remain healthy throughout the year.
2014: 41 saves
2015: 45-50 saves
My logic with Huston Street obtaining 45-50 saves is pretty simple. He will spend the whole season on a very good Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim team.
In 95 games with the Padres where Street threw 33 innings, he notched 24 saves, which is exactly one save for every four games played. In 66 games with the Angels where Street threw 26.1 innings, he notched 17 saves, which is one save for every 3.88 games played.
Is that a major difference? No, it is only a difference of about 1.5 saves per year, but the Angels went 40-26 with Street and he only saved 17 games. On the other hand, Huston Street earned 24 saves with the Padres while they won 41 games during his time there in 2014.
It is pretty easy to see that Street collected a save in a much higher percentage of the games that San Diego won compared to the games that Anaheim won when he pitched for those respective teams. I would expect the difference in those percentages to shrink, which means that Street’s save total should increase with a full season in LA.
I do want to point out that Huston Street is a major injury risk, but he had a clean bill in 2014 as one of the game’s better closers. Also, I want to point out that I believe Street is probably the second least likely to improve upon his save total in this list of six closers simply due to the fact that 41 saves is already very impressive.
The draft day price of Street may be too rich for my blood, but I think he is one of the favorites to lead the league in saves.
2014: 36 saves
2015: 40-45 saves
Aroldis Chapman is one of the most exciting players in the game for good reason. His fastball averaged 100.2 MPH in 2014 according to PITCHf/x data. Chapman has been reportedly clocked at 105.9 MPH, but the exact speed has been subjected to debate.
From a fantasy baseball perspective, Chapman should save more games in 2015 because we can only hope that he does not suffer a horrible freak injury like he did this past Spring Training and the Reds should win more ballgames.
The Cincinnati Reds should win more games next year because in 2014, they were decimated by injuries and underperformance, despite incredible seasons by Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier, and Devin Mesoraco.
In 2012 and 2013, Chapman earned exactly 38 saves in each season. In his slightly limited 2014 campaign of 54 innings, Chapman found himself only two saves off his career high. I would be very surprised if Chapman did not break the 40 save barrier in 2015.
2014: 29 saves
2015: 35 saves
I think Rondon is an easy choice to see his save total increase because the Cubs should be a .500 team or maybe even better in 2015. Plus, Hector Rondon will have the full-time gig from Opening Day instead of having to earn the position early in the season.
After June 1st, the Cubs sat at a dismal 20-34 record. By season’s end, the Chicago Cubs managed to tread water very well to finish at 73-89. The Chicago Cubs won 53 of their last 108 games, which means they were basically an average team for the final two-thirds of the regular season.
Now, we can add in the fact that Javier Baez and Jorge Soler will be on the roster on Opening Day, Kris Bryant should arrive in May, and Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have indicated they are willing to spend this offseason.
The Cubs could very easily afford to bring in an ace or even two good pitchers and be a team that may contend for a playoff spot. If the Cubs could win maybe a dozen more games in 2015, then I think it is very fair to pencil in Hector Rondon to approach and maybe even eclipse 35 saves next year.
See part II of this article to find out who the other three closers are.