The Washington Nationals’ Starters
Oct 4, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) pitches in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in game two of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals claimed the best record in the National League in 2014. Their dominating regular season was led by the trio of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann. Doug Fister and Tanner Roark also contributed to form arguably the best rotation in the Majors.
Coming into the 2014 season, Stephen Strasburg had the highest ADP of those five pitchers, but he actually had the second highest ERA among the Nationals’ starters this year. Despite this fairly discouraging fact, Strasburg still posted an impressive 3.14 ERA this year.
Three of the five Washington Nationals’ starters posted a sub 3.00 ERA in 2014. The aforementioned Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez were the only two starters not in that club. Gio Gonzalez had a 3.57 ERA in only 158.2 innings. Ironically, Strasburg and Gio were probably the two highest draft picks among their staff.
The stats of the incredible Washington Nationals’ starting pitchers in 2014:
[table id=1282 /]
The real star of the staff this year was Jordan Zimmermann who had easily the best season of his very successful career. He posted a miniscule 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and threw for 182 strikeouts.
Jordan Zimmermann has always been very successful in regards to having a low ERA and WHIP, but the strikeouts are new and have dramatically increased his value as a fantasy baseball pitcher.
His 2014 K/9 of 8.20 was a big improvement over his 7.45 career K/9. In his first three seasons as a starter, Zimmermann posted strikeout rates of 6.92, 7.04, and 6.79 from 2011 to 2013, respectively. The ability to miss bats often differentiates a good pitcher from a great one in both real and fantasy baseball.
With Jordan Zimmermann’s newfound ability to make batters miss, he has passed Gio Gonzalez and closed the gap on staff ace, Stephen Strasburg, in terms of fantasy value. Of course, Strasburg will always be the real and fantasy star of the Nationals for many good reasons.
Stephen Strasburg’s 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP were not quite as impressive as Zimmermann, but his 10.13 K/9 is what makes the phenom a more desirable option. In fact, Stephen Strasburg’s 2.94 FIP and 2.56 xFIP indicate the future could be even brighter for the 26-year-old.
I think that Strasburg will improve upon his 2014 season next year because he was hurt by the long ball, while I hope Jordan Zimmermann should post fairly similar stats in 2015.
Despite the highest ERA and WHIP on the team, Gio Gonzalez still flaunted a 9.19 K/9 and 3.03 FIP. As usual, walks were once again the reason that Gio Gonzalez relatively struggled this past season. His career walk rate of issuing 3.90 walks per nine is flat out bad.
However, Gio Gonzalez does a lot of things right when he pitches. Most notably, he has one of the best curveballs in the game. Interestingly enough, he only threw a curve on 16.9% of his pitches in 2014. In the past, Gio Gonzalez had never thrown less than 21% of his pitches as curves. His career rate of throwing curveballs on his pitches 24.4% of the time is a far cry from 2014.
I have to wonder if Wilson Ramos or some of the Washington Nationals’ coaches or front office wanted him to throw less curves to protect his arm, but it is hard to take away someone’s best pitch. According to PITCHf/x data, his curveball has been his best pitch.
I personally think we will see a healthier Gio in 2015 throwing more curves, but I still would prefer to draft Jordan Zimmermann over him.
Finally, I am going to touch on the back end of the rotation where Doug Fister and Tanner Roark really outperformed their expectations. In the above table, you can see that neither pitcher is very effective at garnering strikeouts. Plus, their ERA’s fell way below their FIP’s, especially in the case of Doug Fister.
Usually, this means to avoid these guys next year, but I also think that Tanner Roark will probably be pretty cheap in 2015. If you can land him for a later draft pick or only a $1 or $2 in an auction, then take a flyer on him, but do not expect too much.
Also, I would rather roster either Fister or Roark in a league that uses strikeouts and not K/9 because they will kill your ratio in that category.
In conclusion, here is my super abbreviated early guide of drafting Nationals’ arms in 2015:
- Stephen Strasburg – draft him unless there is a very good bat available instead
- Gio Gonzalez – would probably pass on due to his high walk rate
- Jordan Zimmermann – would definitely draft even if he made the leap last year
- Doug Fister – avoid due to never striking out batters and the average FIP
- Tanner Roark – draft only if it is a late pick