Decline of Dustin Pedroia and the changing 2B position
Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports
I am easily the biggest Dustin Pedroia apologist in fantasy blogging, but enough is enough. I cannot defend Pedroia as a Top-5 second baseman any longer, nor can I suggest him as a Top-3 round pick. He has been far too unreliable over his recent seasons.
This is the second year in a row that Pedroia amassed has 550 at bats and has failed to reach double digit home runs. The 2014 season also marked the fourth time year in a row where his stolen base total decreased.
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These are not great numbers in any format. In fact, they are downright awful, especially considering that Pedroia was drafted as a Top-5 second baseman. I suppose one could make the case that this is just a weird year, as none of the Top-5 second basemen did all that great. While that may be true, Pedroia has had one too many disappointing fantasy performances.
I am go go out on an early limb and say that unless your league has 15 teams or more, no second baseman should be selected in any first round next season. This effectively pushes Pedroia WAY down the draft board.
Sticking to second basemen, these are the guys that I would easily take over Pedroia in 2015.
That’s not necessarily in order, nor are they the only guys that I’d rank ahead of Dustin, but I would take all five of those guys, no questions asked.
We also have a few guys that are past their primes but could be surprisingly solid contributors if they manage to stay healthy.
That’s more the group that Dustin Pedroia falls in with.
The reality is 2B has decent depth, especially if Wild Cards such as Anthony Rendon, Matt Carpenter, and Asdrubal Cabrera maintain their eligibility.
Most of the top second basemen from the last five years have fallen back into the pack, so there is no need to reach for any of them. The only potential game changers are Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon, who can net approximately 40% of your stolen base needs. However I wouldn’t build around either because if they go down to injury, you will be hard pressed to find a replacement. Most 2Bs available are of the balance breed.
So, what should you expect from the second base position?
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Nothing too complicated on how I got here. I took the top nine rated second basemen, trying to find a reasonable balance for most leagues and calculated the averages.
I wouldn’t necessarily suggest drafting a 2B that will get you these numbers, because really there aren’t many that will get you there.
Remember Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon are in this mix and they drastically change the outlook of the stolen base totals. I just like a general idea of what to expect from the position.
You do not need a 100-20-100-10 guy from 2B. You will most likely need that at a couple other spots, like first base and outfield. So do not pass on solid numbers at those other positions for the sake of a 2B, as you can find a guy outside of the Top-10 at 2B to get you close enough to reasonable production. I would error on the side of expecting less power from your 2B and hoping for a little stolen base boost.
Whatever you do, stay away from Pedroia. Unless he drops to double digit rounds or single digit dollars, he is not worth the headaches any longer.