Shin-Soo Choo: An Early Look at OF’s 2015 Value
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Like several of his Texas Rangers teammates, we won’t be seeing Shin-Soo Choo on the baseball field until 2015. So, now’s as good a time as any to speculate on what kind of value he’ll bring to the table when you’re drafting next spring. After all, it’s never too early to start thinking about the draft.
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Now, a guy like Choo has always been a lot more valuable in leagues that count OBP, which was certainly the case this year. Still, that slash line took a noticeable overall drop from .283/.373/.441 in 2012 and .285/.423/.462 in 2013.
So, what was wrong? Choo’s Fangraphs Page answers a few of those questions.
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The strikeout rates are really the most alarming, especially in contrast to the last two seasons.
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As the numbers say, Choo’s always been a high strikeout guy. But if he did record 699 plate appearances (his 2012 and 2013 average) and struck out at the same rate that he’d been throughout 2014, we’d be looking at either 173 or 174 strikeouts. I’ll let you decide whether to round up or round down. Either way, it’s a sharp move in the wrong direction.
In 2011, Choo had a down year, just like this one. He missed more time due to injury and really struggled compared to what he had done over the previous two seasons. There’s a bit of a difference here, though.
In 2011, the peripheral numbers pointed more to getting unlucky. Other than staying healthy, he really didn’t do much differently in 2012 and 2013 and put up much better seasons.
He’s not going to be able to do that in 2015. It’s fair to say that he got a little unlucky this year, but the strikeout, walk, and line drive rates don’t point to a guy that should be in the .280’s or better. Somewhere around .260 might paint a better story.
Which brings us to our final question. When Shin-Soo Choo returns to the field in 2015, should we expect what we got in 2012/2013, even better, 2014, even worse, or somewhere in between?
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Choo’s 32 now and while that’s not completely over-the-hill, I would caution against being too optimistic.
I do think a healthy Choo will score more runs, especially with the return of Prince Fielder. The power has dropped, but not at an alarming rate. Aside from the AVG/OBP, my biggest concern is the steals. Those projections were more based on what he’s done in the past, as Choo’s 3 steals didn’t even put him on pace to steal 10 over a full year.
I’m not worried Shin-Soo Choo falling into fantasy irrelevance, but the decline wasn’t an accident. He’s a lot more valuable in OBP leagues but regardless of format, I’d wait on Choo until after his average draft position. If someone else reaches above that for him, the chances that they’ll end up regretting it are pretty strong.