Does Jorge De La Rosa deserve consideration for a fantasy roster spot?
Given their home park, it’s not a question we ask very often about Colorado Rockies pitchers. Still, given the production he’s had since July 5 and the fact that he’s scheduled to start today, the question is at least worth exploring.
Let’s start with the numbers.
Jorge De La Rosa Since July 5
|Home (3 starts)||21.1||17||4||4||16||3-0||1.69||0.98|
|Road (4 Starts)||24.2||22||5||12||17||0-2||4.38||1.09|
|Total (7 Starts)||46||39||9||16||33||3-2||3.13||1.04|
So, what jumps out there?
Lack of Fear at Coors Field?
Splits like that are just not what you expect to see from a pitcher. He pitches better at Coors Field than he does away from the Mile High City.
Now, before you point out that the sample above is still relatively small, feast your eyes on this.
Jorge De La Rosa Career Splits
While nothing really makes sense about a pitcher doing better in Colorado than elsewhere, Jorge De La Rosa is a case where it makes some sense.
As you can see by clicking on his Baseball Reference page, De La Rosa played high school ball in Guadalajara. He also played professionally in Monterrey before coming to the United States. Thanks to the good people at Google, we see that those places aren’t exactly at sea level.
Not quite a mile high like Denver, but he grew up pitching in elevated environments. Never underestimate how much familiarity can impact how someone pitches.
Just know that his history — both distant and near — indicates that Coors Field isn’t the same problem that it is with basically every other MLB pitcher. Do what you will with that information and my theories on why the splits are the way they are. Just keep that in mind when we go over this.
Remaining Probable Starts
We’ve gone over this with other pitchers and we’ll go over it with future pitchers. When looking at the probable starts of a pitcher, remember that things really change in September with the roster expansion. Things become an even bigger question when we’re talking about a pitcher from a bad team.
Still, if De La Rosa starts every fifth game for Colorado, these are the teams he’ll be squaring off against.
Remaining Probable Starts
|8/20||Kansas City Royals||Home|
|8/26||San Francisco Giants||Away|
|9/6||San Diego Padres||Home|
|9/12||St. Louis Cardinals||Away|
|9/17||Los Angeles Dodgers||Home|
|9/22||San Diego Padres||Away|
|9/28||Los Angeles Dodgers||Away|
Plenty good match-ups there. So far we’ve gone over a few things, and both work in De La Rosa’s favor. What doesn’t?
Unfortunately, this is not a small problem. That’s especially true if your league counts wins but even if you count quality starts instead, it’s an issue.
The schedule isn’t necessarily daunting, but the Rockies can’t assume a victory against anyone. They’re one of the worst teams in the league and have been in a free-fall for two months.
- If your league counts wins, it doesn’t seem that likely that De La Rosa will pick up too many.
- If your league counts quality starts, note that De La Rosa may have some starts skipped. Even if he doesn’t, the Rockies may be a little more likely to want to see what the new kids have and cut De La Rosa’s starts short.
That brings us back to the original question.
Is De La Rosa Worth a Roster Spot?
Yes, but I’d be very patient at this point.
The biggest concern with Colorado pitchers is Coors Field and while all of the factors are still there, it’s not as big a concern for De La Rosa.
Still, this hot streak is significantly better than the rest of 2014, and his career. That’s not to say that he can’t sustain it but if things go bad for a few starts, don’t waste time cutting him loose.
As long as you’re attentive, Jorge De La Rosa is worth a roster spot.