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Fantasy Baseball Hot Streaks: Wei-Yin Chen

Wei-Yin Chen is 5-0 in five starts since the beginning of July. Not impressed by a great W-L record? That’s okay, I figured it would take a little bit more than that. Chen’s actually having a very nice season for himself, and the W-L is only a part of it.

Wei-Yin Chen, 2014

2014 Totals124.19012-33.761.24
Totals Since July 132255-02.531.06

Good overall numbers, great recent ones. What does that mean for Chen’s value in 2014?

Well, for now, it means that he’s a good guy to take a streaming risk on if you need the pitching help.

In the long term, I don’t think it’s all that controversial to say that the numbers he’s had since the start of July aren’t going to be maintained. Some regression is a given, but how much regression can be expected? A few factors go into that.


Wei-Yin Chen Remaining Projected Starts

August 6at Toronto
August 11vs. NY Yankees
August 17at Cleveland
August 23at Chicago Cubs
August 28vs. Tampa Bay
September 2vs. Cincinnati
September 7at Tampa Bay
September 13vs. NY Yankees
September 19vs. Boston
September 24at NY Yankees

Of course, this assumes that Chen starts every fifth game for the Orioles. If that does happen, though, that’s not exactly a brutal run, especially if the fringe contenders (notably the Yankees) fall further out of it in September. When the rosters expand, teams out of it frequently have rookie-heavy lineups and that’s especially likely to occur if the Orioles get some separation themselves.

Even if that doesn’t happen though, I don’t really hate those opponents. I don’t love the next outing against the Blue Jays, but even the traditionally strong offenses (Reds, Red Sox, Yankees) aren’t exactly having great offensive seasons.

Rotations can get jumbled, so this is something to monitor. But for now, this is about as good a run of opponents as you can expect a pitcher in the AL East to have, even in a season when the division isn’t its normal dominant self.

The Mean

When a player is on a hot streak and we’re wondering how big the fall’s going to be when the streak ends, it’s fairly natural to wonder what he’s done for the rest of his career. Fortunately, we have that information.

2014 Totals9.
2014 Totals Since July

The current numbers are better, but a regression back to his career or overall 2014 numbers shouldn’t be expected.

What can be Expected?

It’s certainly fair to say that his run over the last five starts won’t continue, but I’m not expecting a big regression. The opponents are lined up in a very nice way, and Chen is pitching very well.

In such a short period of time, it’s a little challenging to project ratios, as if the total numbers deviate by even a little bit, the ratios can be pretty dramatically altered.

That said, I don’t think a line like this for the rest of the year is all that unlikely.

H (H/9)
BB (BB/9)
K (K/9)
6060 (9.0)13 (2.0)45 (6.8)3.151.22

That, combined with what should be a great win-loss record makes Wei-Yin Chen a nice add if you need pitching help.

Tags: Baltimore Orioles Fantasy Free Agents MLB Wei-Yin Chen

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