Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Chase Headley Yankees: Don't Expect Big Fantasy Jump

As Jon Heyman of CBS Sports first reported in succinct fashion, the trade market for bats is minus one guy today, with Chase Headley on the move.

Now,  when you look at his numbers, this move is a non-factor for fantasy baseball purposes.

Chase Headley, 2014

AB
H
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG/OBP/SLG
27964277324.229/.396/.355

But remember, it was only 2012 when Headley slashed at .286/.376/.498, hit 31 homers, drove in 115, scored 95, and stole 17 bags. Can this trade help Chase Headley return to that form?

When you look at his career home/road splits, this would seem to be a great upgrade for Headley and maybe something that can give him the kick needed to start producing big numbers.

Chase Headley, Career Home/Road Splits

Split
AB
H
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG/OBP/SLG
Home15783841793518132.243/.331/.372
Road17084892195222041.286/.360/.444

It makes sense, as he’s played his entire career at the cavernous Petco Park. Now that he’s going to Yankee Stadium, which is almost the polar opposite, a big jump has to come, right?

Perhaps, but the 2014 home/road splits don’t exactly indicate that Petco Park has been the problem for Headley in 2014.

Chase Headley, 2014 Home/Road Splits

Split
AB
H
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG/OBP/SLG
Home14035152183.250/.303/.357
Road13929125141.209/.290/.353

So if you’re looking for Headley to get a big kick, you’re relying on a few things.

  1. The Yankees offense being a tremendous upgrade over the Padres.
  2. Playing in a playoff race will rejuvenate Headley.

No. 2 I can’t really speculate on too much, although I can say this. Headley’s best season — by far — was 2012, and he wasn’t really in a playoff race that year. So he’s found a way to overcome that in the past.

As for No. 1, it’s a little challenging to speculate on, as we don’t know where Joe Girardi is going to put Chase Headley in the lineup, or how Headley and the other Yankees will react. But if we want to know how much better the Yankees offense is than the Padres, that’s pretty easy to see.

Yankees vs. Padres: 2014

Team
Runs (Rank)
HR (Rank)
AVG (Rank)
OBP (Rank)
SLG (Rank)
Yankees391 (T-21)84 (16).252 (T-16).314 (T-18).379 (21)
Padres291 (30)69 (28).215 (30).274 (30).336 (30)

A few weeks ago, it was rumored that Headley may be headed to Toronto. I did something similar and not only did I find the Padres have the worst offense in the league, I found that it wasn’t close. If you want to see specific examples, you can read that again (they all still hold true).

Just realize that these aren’t exactly your daddy’s Bronx Bombers. In just about every category you can find, they’ve been a downright mediocre offense.

So, fantasy owners, I’m just not buying that this move will make Chase Headley someone fantasy owners should go after. That’s not to say that he won’t improve at all, I just don’t see enough of a jolt coming that would justify making him a fantasy 3B.

Tags: Chase Headley MLB New York Yankees Trades

comments powered by Disqus